Tournament model details — IND India Team: India (IND) — 39.9% Uzbekistan (UZB) — 30.4% United States of America (USA) — 13.8% Germany (GER) — 6.0% China (CHN) — 5.6% Azerbaijan (AZE) — 1.3% Netherlands (NED) — 0.9% France (FRA) — 0.7% Armenia (ARM) — 0.5% Hungary (HUN) — 0.3% England (ENG) — 0.2% Ukraine (UKR) — 0.1% Spain (ESP) — 0.1% Poland (POL) — 0.1% Turkiye (TUR) — 0.1% Serbia (SRB) — 0.0% Iran (IRI) — 0.0% Greece (GRE) — 0.0% Czech Republic (CZE) — 0.0% Norway (NOR) — 0.0% Romania (ROU) — 0.0% Austria (AUT) — 0.0% Georgia (GEO) — 0.0% Afghanistan (AFG) — 0.0% Albania (ALB) — 0.0% Algeria (ALG) — 0.0% Andorra (AND) — 0.0% Angola (ANG) — 0.0% Antigua and Barbuda (ANT) — 0.0% Argentina (ARG) — 0.0% Aruba (ARU) — 0.0% Australia (AUS) — 0.0% Bahamas (BAH) — 0.0% Bahrain (BRN) — 0.0% Bangladesh (BAN) — 0.0% Barbados (BAR) — 0.0% Belarus (BLR) — 0.0% Belgium (BEL) — 0.0% Belize (BIZ) — 0.0% Bermuda (BER) — 0.0% Bhutan (BHU) — 0.0% Bolivia (BOL) — 0.0% Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH) — 0.0% Botswana (BOT) — 0.0% Brazil (BRA) — 0.0% British Virgin Islands (IVB) — 0.0% Brunei Darussalam (BRU) — 0.0% Bulgaria (BUL) — 0.0% Burkina Faso (BUR) — 0.0% Burundi (BDI) — 0.0% Cambodia (CAM) — 0.0% Cameroon (CMR) — 0.0% Canada (CAN) — 0.0% Cape Verde (CPV) — 0.0% Cayman Islands (CAY) — 0.0% Central African Republic (CAF) — 0.0% Chad (CHA) — 0.0% Chile (CHI) — 0.0% Chinese Taipei (TPE) — 0.0% Colombia (COL) — 0.0% Comoros Islands (COM) — 0.0% Costa Rica (CRC) — 0.0% Cote d’Ivoire (CIV) — 0.0% Croatia (CRO) — 0.0% Cuba (CUB) — 0.0% Curacao (CUR) — 0.0% Cyprus (CYP) — 0.0% Democratic Republic of the Congo (COD) — 0.0% Denmark (DEN) — 0.0% Djibouti (DJI) — 0.0% Dominica (DMA) — 0.0% Dominican Republic (DOM) — 0.0% Ecuador (ECU) — 0.0% Egypt (EGY) — 0.0% El Salvador (ESA) — 0.0% Equatorial Guinea (GEQ) — 0.0% Estonia (EST) — 0.0% Eswatini (SWZ) — 0.0% Ethiopia (ETH) — 0.0% Faroe Islands (FAI) — 0.0% Fiji (FIJ) — 0.0% Finland (FIN) — 0.0% Gabon (GAB) — 0.0% Gambia (GAM) — 0.0% Ghana (GHA) — 0.0% Greenland (GRL) — 0.0% Grenada (GRN) — 0.0% Guam (GUM) — 0.0% Guatemala (GUA) — 0.0% Guernsey (GCI) — 0.0% Guinea (GUI) — 0.0% Guyana (GUY) — 0.0% Haiti (HAI) — 0.0% Honduras (HON) — 0.0% Hong Kong, China (HKG) — 0.0% Iceland (ISL) — 0.0% Indonesia (INA) — 0.0% Iraq (IRQ) — 0.0% Ireland (IRL) — 0.0% Isle of Man (IOM) — 0.0% Israel (ISR) — 0.0% Italy (ITA) — 0.0% Jamaica (JAM) — 0.0% Japan (JPN) — 0.0% Jersey (JCI) — 0.0% Jordan (JOR) — 0.0% Kazakhstan (KAZ) — 0.0% Kenya (KEN) — 0.0% Kiribati (KIR) — 0.0% Kosovo * (KOS) — 0.0% Kuwait (KUW) — 0.0% Kyrgyzstan (KGZ) — 0.0% Laos (LAO) — 0.0% Latvia (LAT) — 0.0% Lebanon (LBN) — 0.0% Lesotho (LES) — 0.0% Liberia (LBR) — 0.0% Libya (LBA) — 0.0% Liechtenstein (LIE) — 0.0% Lithuania (LTU) — 0.0% Luxembourg (LUX) — 0.0% Macau, China (MAC) — 0.0% Madagascar (MAD) — 0.0% Malawi (MAW) — 0.0% Malaysia (MAS) — 0.0% Maldives (MDV) — 0.0% Mali (MLI) — 0.0% Malta (MLT) — 0.0% Marshall Islands (MHL) — 0.0% Mauritania (MTN) — 0.0% Mauritius (MRI) — 0.0% Mexico (MEX) — 0.0% Moldova (MDA) — 0.0% Monaco (MNC) — 0.0% Mongolia (MGL) — 0.0% Montenegro (MNE) — 0.0% Morocco (MAR) — 0.0% Mozambique (MOZ) — 0.0% Myanmar (MYA) — 0.0% Namibia (NAM) — 0.0% Nauru (NRU) — 0.0% Nepal (NEP) — 0.0% New Caledonia (NCL) — 0.0% New Zealand (NZL) — 0.0% Nicaragua (NCA) — 0.0% Niger (NIG) — 0.0% Nigeria (NGR) — 0.0% North Macedonia (MKD) — 0.0% Oman (OMA) — 0.0% Pakistan (PAK) — 0.0% Palau (PLW) — 0.0% Palestine (PLE) — 0.0% Panama (PAN) — 0.0% Papua New Guinea (PNG) — 0.0% Paraguay (PAR) — 0.0% Peru (PER) — 0.0% Philippines (PHI) — 0.0% Portugal (POR) — 0.0% Puerto Rico (PUR) — 0.0% Qatar (QAT) — 0.0% Saint Kitts and Nevis (SKN) — 0.0% Saint Lucia (LCA) — 0.0% Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (VIN) — 0.0% San Marino (SMR) — 0.0% Sao Tome and Principe (STP) — 0.0% Saudi Arabia (KSA) — 0.0% Scotland (SCO) — 0.0% Senegal (SEN) — 0.0% Seychelles (SEY) — 0.0% Sierra Leone (SLE) — 0.0% Singapore (SGP) — 0.0% Slovakia (SVK) — 0.0% Slovenia (SLO) — 0.0% Solomon Islands (SOL) — 0.0% Somalia (SOM) — 0.0% South Africa (RSA) — 0.0% South Korea (KOR) — 0.0% South Sudan (SSD) — 0.0% Sri Lanka (SRI) — 0.0% Sudan (SUD) — 0.0% Suriname (SUR) — 0.0% Sweden (SWE) — 0.0% Switzerland (SUI) — 0.0% Syria (SYR) — 0.0% Tajikistan (TJK) — 0.0% Tanzania (TAN) — 0.0% Thailand (THA) — 0.0% Timor-Leste (TLS) — 0.0% Togo (TOG) — 0.0% Tonga (TGA) — 0.0% Trinidad & Tobago (TTO) — 0.0% Tunisia (TUN) — 0.0% Turkmenistan (TKM) — 0.0% Uganda (UGA) — 0.0% United Arab Emirates (UAE) — 0.0% Uruguay (URU) — 0.0% US Virgin Islands (ISV) — 0.0% Vanuatu (VAN) — 0.0% Venezuela (VEN) — 0.0% Vietnam (VIE) — 0.0% Wales (WLS) — 0.0% Yemen (YEM) — 0.0% Zambia (ZAM) — 0.0% Zimbabwe (ZIM) — 0.0% — every chart below follows it
Threshold probabilities Team P(win) E[MP] median 14+ MP 16+ MP 18+ MP 20+ MP IND India 39.9% 18.44 18 100.0% 98.2% 71.0% 25.6% UZB Uzbekistan 30.4% 17.85 18 100.0% 96.0% 56.2% 14.6% USA United States of America 13.8% 17.22 17 100.0% 93.7% 39.1% 3.9% GER Germany 6.0% 16.78 17 99.9% 84.7% 26.1% 3.4% CHN China 5.6% 16.58 17 99.9% 83.9% 18.8% 1.2% AZE Azerbaijan 1.3% 16.15 16 99.7% 75.0% 8.7% 0.2% NED Netherlands 0.9% 16.17 16 99.7% 74.6% 10.0% 0.3% FRA France 0.7% 15.88 16 99.2% 65.0% 4.7% 0.1% ARM Armenia 0.5% 15.90 16 99.2% 65.4% 5.2% 0.1% HUN Hungary 0.3% 15.89 16 99.3% 66.3% 5.1% 0.1% ENG England 0.2% 15.58 16 98.2% 52.9% 2.2% 0.0% UKR Ukraine 0.1% 15.53 16 98.0% 52.6% 2.0% 0.0% ESP Spain 0.1% 15.49 16 97.7% 50.6% 2.0% 0.0% POL Poland 0.1% 15.39 15 97.2% 47.9% 1.1% 0.0% TUR Turkiye 0.1% 15.44 15 97.4% 48.9% 1.5% 0.0%
Final MP distribution — IND Final match points — IND India 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 13 MP: 0.00% 13 14 MP: 0.13% 14 15 MP: 1.65% 15 16 MP: 8.72% 16 17 MP: 18.52% 17 18 MP: 23.69% 18 19 MP: 21.68% 19 20 MP: 15.72% 20 21 MP: 7.37% 21 22 MP: 2.52% 22 Expected MP 18.4 · median 18 Final match points Round trajectory — IND MP trajectory — IND India (median, 10th–90th percentile) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Round (0 = before round 1; rounds already played are the known MP) dashed = mean Team × final MP Team × final MP (probability) 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 IND India IND 13 MP: 0.00% IND 14 MP: 0.13% IND 15 MP: 1.65% IND 16 MP: 8.72% 9 IND 17 MP: 18.52% 19 IND 18 MP: 23.69% 24 IND 19 MP: 21.68% 22 IND 20 MP: 15.72% 16 IND 21 MP: 7.37% IND 22 MP: 2.52% UZB Uzbekistan UZB 13 MP: 0.01% UZB 14 MP: 0.34% UZB 15 MP: 3.70% UZB 16 MP: 14.94% 15 UZB 17 MP: 24.82% 25 UZB 18 MP: 24.46% 24 UZB 19 MP: 17.15% 17 UZB 20 MP: 9.95% 10 UZB 21 MP: 3.70% UZB 22 MP: 0.93% USA United States of A USA 13 MP: 0.01% USA 14 MP: 0.43% USA 15 MP: 5.84% USA 16 MP: 23.41% 23 USA 17 MP: 31.19% 31 USA 18 MP: 24.01% 24 USA 19 MP: 11.24% 11 USA 20 MP: 3.87% USA 21 MP: 0.00% USA 22 MP: 0.00% GER Germany GER 13 MP: 0.10% GER 14 MP: 2.14% GER 15 MP: 13.05% 13 GER 16 MP: 30.16% 30 GER 17 MP: 28.46% 28 GER 18 MP: 15.74% 16 GER 19 MP: 6.98% GER 20 MP: 2.58% GER 21 MP: 0.64% GER 22 MP: 0.14% CHN China CHN 13 MP: 0.09% CHN 14 MP: 1.72% CHN 15 MP: 14.32% 14 CHN 16 MP: 33.32% 33 CHN 17 MP: 31.77% 32 CHN 18 MP: 13.22% 13 CHN 19 MP: 4.34% CHN 20 MP: 1.02% CHN 21 MP: 0.19% CHN 22 MP: 0.00% NED Netherlands NED 13 MP: 0.32% NED 14 MP: 4.38% NED 15 MP: 20.73% 21 NED 16 MP: 39.33% 39 NED 17 MP: 25.28% 25 NED 18 MP: 8.10% 8 NED 19 MP: 1.59% NED 20 MP: 0.27% NED 21 MP: 0.00% NED 22 MP: 0.00% AZE Azerbaijan AZE 13 MP: 0.27% AZE 14 MP: 3.79% AZE 15 MP: 20.97% 21 AZE 16 MP: 40.92% 41 AZE 17 MP: 25.36% 25 AZE 18 MP: 7.30% AZE 19 MP: 1.22% AZE 20 MP: 0.16% AZE 21 MP: 0.00% AZE 22 MP: 0.00% ARM Armenia ARM 13 MP: 0.76% ARM 14 MP: 6.53% ARM 15 MP: 27.32% 27 ARM 16 MP: 38.45% 38 ARM 17 MP: 21.72% 22 ARM 18 MP: 4.38% ARM 19 MP: 0.71% ARM 20 MP: 0.11% ARM 21 MP: 0.01% ARM 22 MP: 0.00% HUN Hungary HUN 13 MP: 0.73% HUN 14 MP: 7.03% HUN 15 MP: 25.93% 26 HUN 16 MP: 40.44% 40 HUN 17 MP: 20.80% 21 HUN 18 MP: 4.50% HUN 19 MP: 0.50% HUN 20 MP: 0.06% HUN 21 MP: 0.00% HUN 22 MP: 0.00% FRA France FRA 13 MP: 0.73% FRA 14 MP: 6.64% FRA 15 MP: 27.63% 28 FRA 16 MP: 38.89% 39 FRA 17 MP: 21.34% 21 FRA 18 MP: 4.05% FRA 19 MP: 0.62% FRA 20 MP: 0.07% FRA 21 MP: 0.01% FRA 22 MP: 0.00% ENG England ENG 13 MP: 1.81% ENG 14 MP: 10.87% 11 ENG 15 MP: 34.33% 34 ENG 16 MP: 36.06% 36 ENG 17 MP: 14.73% 15 ENG 18 MP: 1.88% ENG 19 MP: 0.26% ENG 20 MP: 0.02% ENG 21 MP: 0.00% ENG 22 MP: 0.00% UKR Ukraine UKR 13 MP: 1.90% UKR 14 MP: 12.21% 12 UKR 15 MP: 33.17% 33 UKR 16 MP: 37.99% 38 UKR 17 MP: 12.63% 13 UKR 18 MP: 1.87% UKR 19 MP: 0.14% UKR 20 MP: 0.01% UKR 21 MP: 0.00% UKR 22 MP: 0.00% ESP Spain ESP 13 MP: 2.21% ESP 14 MP: 12.92% 13 ESP 15 MP: 34.17% 34 ESP 16 MP: 36.96% 37 ESP 17 MP: 11.64% 12 ESP 18 MP: 1.88% ESP 19 MP: 0.11% ESP 20 MP: 0.02% ESP 21 MP: 0.00% ESP 22 MP: 0.00% TUR Turkiye TUR 13 MP: 2.45% TUR 14 MP: 13.37% 13 TUR 15 MP: 35.11% 35 TUR 16 MP: 37.10% 37 TUR 17 MP: 10.31% 10 TUR 18 MP: 1.47% TUR 19 MP: 0.06% TUR 20 MP: 0.01% TUR 21 MP: 0.00% TUR 22 MP: 0.00% SRB Serbia SRB 13 MP: 2.41% SRB 14 MP: 13.47% 13 SRB 15 MP: 34.57% 35 SRB 16 MP: 37.85% 38 SRB 17 MP: 10.21% 10 SRB 18 MP: 1.31% SRB 19 MP: 0.04% SRB 20 MP: 0.00% SRB 21 MP: 0.00% SRB 22 MP: 0.00% cell = % of trials; shading saturates at 25% Spec §10.2 visuals. p_highest_mp counts tied leaders independently (Σ = 1.423); P(win) and the equal split each sum to 1. Pairing fallbacks this run: see pairing_diagnostics.json.
in-round loop: last tick 00:20:09 · round 6: 0/412 boards scored, 0 priced by chess_model, 412 from ratings · board probabilities missing · Polymarket: websocket live , 40 legs
json · market json · latest single run