Olympiad Open 2026

Tournament model details — IND India

Threshold probabilities

Team	P(win)	E[MP]	median	14+ MP	16+ MP	18+ MP	20+ MP
IND India	32.0%	18.02	18	100.0%	96.9%	60.2%	17.4%
USA United States of America	27.4%	17.91	18	100.0%	96.6%	57.6%	15.6%
UZB Uzbekistan	21.3%	17.43	17	100.0%	93.8%	43.9%	8.6%
CHN China	8.2%	16.71	17	99.9%	85.2%	23.2%	2.4%
GER Germany	3.8%	16.40	16	99.8%	79.5%	15.3%	0.9%
AZE Azerbaijan	2.7%	16.31	16	99.7%	77.8%	12.9%	0.6%
NED Netherlands	1.8%	16.23	16	99.7%	75.5%	11.6%	0.5%
FRA France	0.9%	15.85	16	99.1%	64.1%	4.8%	0.1%
HUN Hungary	0.7%	15.93	16	99.2%	66.6%	6.0%	0.2%
ARM Armenia	0.5%	15.83	16	99.1%	63.4%	4.6%	0.1%
UKR Ukraine	0.1%	15.53	16	98.0%	51.9%	2.3%	0.0%
ESP Spain	0.1%	15.49	16	97.6%	50.4%	2.0%	0.0%
ENG England	0.1%	15.51	16	97.9%	51.0%	1.7%	0.0%
TUR Turkiye	0.1%	15.44	15	97.5%	48.4%	1.6%	0.0%
POL Poland	0.1%	15.37	15	96.9%	46.1%	1.1%	0.0%

Final MP distribution — IND

Round trajectory — IND

Team × final MP

Spec §10.2 visuals. p_highest_mp counts tied leaders independently (Σ = 1.438); P(win) and the equal split each sum to 1. Pairing fallbacks this run: see pairing_diagnostics.json.

in-round loop: last tick 23:41:52 · round 6: 0/412 boards scored, 0 priced by chess_model, 412 from ratings · board probabilities missing · Polymarket: websocket live, 40 legs

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