{
 "model_version": "mp_monte_carlo/0.2.2",
 "snapshot_hash": "092fbbdaff7569ebd5c8f94a2504cf8bc493e17325296aee6e4ff09ff131dde9",
 "snapshot_time": "2026-09-20T17:18:07.478Z",
 "master_seed": 20260917,
 "trials": 50000,
 "run": {
  "model_version": "mp_monte_carlo/0.2.2",
  "snapshot_hash": "092fbbdaff7569ebd5c8f94a2504cf8bc493e17325296aee6e4ff09ff131dde9",
  "snapshot_time": "2026-09-20T17:18:07.478Z",
  "snapshot_path": "chess_model_tournament/data/runs/timeline/snapshot_r3.json",
  "config": {
   "_comment": "Spec §4.1 defaults. Every run stamps the RESOLVED config (this + event + CLI overrides) into simulation_summary.json. Changing a calibration value here is a decision (ai/decisions.md) with evidence, never a silent edit.",
   "model_version": "mp_monte_carlo/0.2.2",
   "boards_per_match": 4,
   "match_points": {
    "win": 2,
    "draw": 1,
    "loss": 0
   },
   "ranking_mode": "MP_ONLY",
   "tie_policy": "SHARED_MAX_MP",
   "win_split_policy": "EQUAL_SPLIT",
   "_win_split_comment": "D4: p_win_equal_split = 1/k among k tied leaders, reported beside p_highest_mp. Future: TB_PROXY (spec v1.1).",
   "board_model": {
    "kind": "rating_davidson_softmax",
    "_kind_comment": "D5 (operator 2026-09-17): the board W/D/B comes from an Elo formula — chess_model's pre-game Davidson-softmax form, refit here on the whole human field (1400-2900) with a draw-vs-gap term; artifact below. 'spec_v1_closed_form' (the spec's d0/kappa/H construction) is kept as the alternative and is what the spec text describes.",
    "artifact": "config/board_model_olympiad_v0.2.json",
    "_artifact_comment": "D16 (2026-09-18): fitted on 17,331 Olympiad boards 2014-2024 (tools/fit_board_model_olympiad.py) with a level-by-gap term; beats the relay-corpus fit v0.1 (config/board_model_davidson_v0.1.json, kept) on every held-out Olympiad by 0.010-0.023 nats. v0.1 under-rated an elite favourite by up to 8 points of expected score.",
    "white_advantage_elo": 35,
    "equal_rating_draw_rate": 0.5,
    "draw_decay_elo": 400,
    "_spec_params_comment": "white_advantage_elo / equal_rating_draw_rate / draw_decay_elo are used ONLY by kind=spec_v1_closed_form. Under rating_davidson_softmax the White advantage is the artifact's fitted intercept (~45 Elo).",
    "probability_sum_tolerance": 1e-9,
    "unrated_rating_floor": 1400,
    "_unrated_comment": "D8: Chess-Results prints unrated as Rtg 0; 16 of 205 teams have <4 rated players. Simulated at FIDE's own floor (1400), flagged unrated:true; the snapshot keeps rating:null."
   },
   "team_elo_adjustments": {
    "USA": 6,
    "IND": 25.8,
    "UZB": 19.5,
    "CHN": 0,
    "GER": 11.9,
    "NED": 0,
    "AZE": 11.9,
    "HUN": 0,
    "FRA": 7.9,
    "ARM": 7.6
   },
   "team_elo_adjustments_max_starting_rank": 10,
   "_team_elo_comment": "D35 (operator, 2026-09-20), REPLACING D17's rating-change buckets. Elo added to every player of the team = the mean AGE SHIFT of its strongest four, where the shift is fitted on RESULTS (not on rating change): four age bins relative to 27+, <=20 +31.7, 21-23 +23.8, 24-26 +15.2, 27+ 0, measured with the board model held fixed on 5,939 elite relay games (both players 2600+, 2023-2026, 226 players, 51 federations, population-complete). D17's rating-change rates were selection-inflated (they vanish above 2650) and its 24-30 bucket understated the 24-26 group about fourfold; the one-year lag it assumed IS confirmed by the results fit (1.07 years, CI 0.54-1.64). Evidence and every caveat: docs/rating_lag_review_2026-09-20.md. Applied to seeds 1-10 ONLY, enforced by team_elo_adjustments_max_starting_rank (a federation key alone used to reach Uzbekistan 2 and 3); a team_id key overrides a federation key. Every other team is 0. UZB +30 stays NOT adopted (D15). What-ifs: config/scenarios.json. The backtest applies this only via tools/backtest.mjs --adjustments. Recompute: ages from tools/rating_trajectory.mjs; the bins from data/runs/review_20260920/scripts/.",
   "run_modes": {
    "interactive": 100000,
    "final": 1000000,
    "test": 10000
   },
   "thresholds_mp": [
    14,
    16,
    18,
    20
   ],
   "trajectory_quantiles": [
    0.1,
    0.5,
    0.9
   ],
   "pairing": {
    "bye_enabled": false,
    "bye_mp": 1,
    "bye_game_points": 2,
    "_bye_comment": "FIDE Olympiad Pairing Rules art. 4.3: a bye is 1 matchpoint and 2 gamepoints — NOT the spec's 2 MP (§8.4). Used when crediting a real bye in the snapshot (Kiribati, round 3); the simulator never awards one under D6. Verify against the round-4 'MP before' column.",
    "merge_adjacent_groups_only_when_no_legal_matching": true,
    "pairing_order": "top_down",
    "_order_comment": "Olympiad rules 6.4 pair top groups down to the middle, then bottom groups up, then the middle; the spec (§8.2) pairs top-down only. Implemented as the spec says; TASK-9 measures the divergence."
   }
  },
  "config_hash": "7ec2a044183a19765a91c828d3d2822087035f0542afcb533dad75542edd3d70",
  "artifact": "chess_model_tournament/config/board_model_olympiad_v0.2.json",
  "artifact_sha256": "1f24c5aa9d6e69497a66d333b9f72fbb7117776e0bc924e1633879d45c876074",
  "master_seed": 20260917,
  "trials": 50000,
  "workers": 4,
  "started_at": "2026-09-20T17:18:07.634Z",
  "elapsed_s": 50.099
 },
 "tournament": {
  "tournament_id": "olympiad_open_2026",
  "rounds_total": 11,
  "boards_per_match": 4,
  "team_count": 206,
  "active_teams": [
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  ],
  "excluded_teams": []
 },
 "excluded_teams": [],
 "sums": {
  "p_highest_mp": 1.4378799999999992,
  "p_win_equal_split": 1,
  "p_win": 1
 },
 "p_win_method": "TB_PROXY (Sonneborn-Berger on the trial, then game points, then shared)",
 "as_of": {
  "last_completed_round": 3,
  "current_round": null
 },
 "note_highest_mp": "p_highest_mp counts every team sharing the maximum MP; tied leaders are counted independently, so the column can sum to more than 1. p_win_equal_split splits a k-way tie 1/k (D4) and sums to 1.",
 "teams": [
  {
   "team_id": 1,
   "team_name": "United States of America",
   "federation": "USA",
   "starting_rank": 1,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 17.914099999999998,
   "median_final_mp": 18,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "13": 0.00008,
    "14": 0.00232,
    "15": 0.03174,
    "16": 0.14182,
    "17": 0.24766,
    "18": 0.24452,
    "19": 0.17552,
    "20": 0.10432,
    "21": 0.04194,
    "22": 0.01008
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.3781,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.21962,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.28586110317460317,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.27429,
   "p_win": 0.27429,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.99992,
    "16": 0.96586,
    "18": 0.57638,
    "20": 0.15634
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 2,
   "team_name": "India",
   "federation": "IND",
   "starting_rank": 2,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 18.0161,
   "median_final_mp": 18,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "13": 0.00002,
    "14": 0.00182,
    "15": 0.02886,
    "16": 0.12738,
    "17": 0.23984,
    "18": 0.24436,
    "19": 0.18382,
    "20": 0.11358,
    "21": 0.0476,
    "22": 0.01272
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.4047,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.24172,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.30982030158730156,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.31962,
   "p_win": 0.31962,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.99998,
    "16": 0.9693,
    "18": 0.60208,
    "20": 0.1739
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 3,
   "team_name": "Uzbekistan",
   "federation": "UZB",
   "starting_rank": 3,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 17.42984,
   "median_final_mp": 17,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "13": 0.00012,
    "14": 0.00442,
    "15": 0.05728,
    "16": 0.20944,
    "17": 0.28956,
    "18": 0.22582,
    "19": 0.12754,
    "20": 0.06122,
    "21": 0.01998,
    "22": 0.00462
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.25826,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.13012,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.1823222777777778,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.21259,
   "p_win": 0.21259,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.99988,
    "16": 0.93818,
    "18": 0.43918,
    "20": 0.08582
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 4,
   "team_name": "China",
   "federation": "CHN",
   "starting_rank": 4,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 16.71236,
   "median_final_mp": 17,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "11": 0.00002,
    "13": 0.00092,
    "14": 0.01706,
    "15": 0.12998,
    "16": 0.31382,
    "17": 0.30588,
    "18": 0.15258,
    "19": 0.0558,
    "20": 0.01942,
    "21": 0.00392,
    "22": 0.0006
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.11828,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.04638,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.07434007936507936,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.08235,
   "p_win": 0.08235,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.99906,
    "16": 0.85202,
    "18": 0.23232,
    "20": 0.02394
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 5,
   "team_name": "Germany",
   "federation": "GER",
   "starting_rank": 5,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 16.4034,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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   "p_win_equal_split": 0.04206181746031747,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.0376,
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   "p_mp_at_least": {
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   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 6,
   "team_name": "Netherlands",
   "federation": "NED",
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   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 16.23482,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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    "14": 0.04044,
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    "22": 0.00006
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.05074,
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   "p_win_equal_split": 0.02806526190476191,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.01798,
   "p_win": 0.01798,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 7,
   "team_name": "Azerbaijan",
   "federation": "AZE",
   "starting_rank": 7,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 16.314739999999997,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "13": 0.00268,
    "14": 0.03484,
    "15": 0.18494,
    "16": 0.36908,
    "17": 0.27908,
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   "p_highest_mp": 0.05634,
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   "p_win_equal_split": 0.03211848412698413,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.02719,
   "p_win": 0.02719,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
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    "20": 0.00608
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 8,
   "team_name": "Hungary",
   "federation": "HUN",
   "starting_rank": 8,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.927980000000002,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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    "13": 0.00794,
    "14": 0.0689,
    "15": 0.25712,
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    "17": 0.2156,
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   "p_highest_mp": 0.02414,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.00538,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.01218142857142857,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.00661,
   "p_win": 0.00661,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.99194,
    "16": 0.66592,
    "18": 0.05984,
    "20": 0.00152
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 9,
   "team_name": "France",
   "federation": "FRA",
   "starting_rank": 9,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.847959999999999,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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    "14": 0.07768,
    "15": 0.27204,
    "16": 0.39446,
    "17": 0.199,
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   "p_win_equal_split": 0.009091126984126984,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.00861,
   "p_win": 0.00861,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 10,
   "team_name": "Armenia",
   "federation": "ARM",
   "starting_rank": 10,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.83176,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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   "p_mp_at_least": {
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   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 11,
   "team_name": "England",
   "federation": "ENG",
   "starting_rank": 11,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.513720000000001,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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   "p_win": 0.00132,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.9787,
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    "18": 0.0173,
    "20": 0.00008
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 12,
   "team_name": "Ukraine",
   "federation": "UKR",
   "starting_rank": 12,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.53152,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "12": 0.00092,
    "13": 0.0192,
    "14": 0.12246,
    "15": 0.33868,
    "16": 0.36764,
    "17": 0.12806,
    "18": 0.02112,
    "19": 0.0016,
    "20": 0.0003,
    "21": 0.00002
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.00728,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.00092,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.0031184920634920632,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.0015,
   "p_win": 0.0015,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.97988,
    "16": 0.51874,
    "18": 0.02304,
    "20": 0.00032
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 13,
   "team_name": "Spain",
   "federation": "ESP",
   "starting_rank": 13,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.488339999999999,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "12": 0.0012,
    "13": 0.02246,
    "14": 0.1281,
    "15": 0.34382,
    "16": 0.36544,
    "17": 0.11922,
    "18": 0.01812,
    "19": 0.0015,
    "20": 0.00012,
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   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.00638,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.0007,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.002676301587301587,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.00146,
   "p_win": 0.00146,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.97634,
    "16": 0.50442,
    "18": 0.01976,
    "20": 0.00014
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 14,
   "team_name": "Turkiye",
   "federation": "TUR",
   "starting_rank": 14,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.4375,
   "median_final_mp": 15,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "12": 0.00122,
    "13": 0.02394,
    "14": 0.13548,
    "15": 0.35488,
    "16": 0.36182,
    "17": 0.10686,
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    "3": 0.01026,
    "4": 0.05306,
    "5": 0.19606,
    "6": 0.34314,
    "7": 0.2683,
    "8": 0.10508,
    "9": 0.02018,
    "10": 0.00138,
    "11": 0.00006
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   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0,
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    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
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  },
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   "team_id": 199,
   "team_name": "Niger",
   "federation": "NIG",
   "starting_rank": 199,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 5.90672,
   "median_final_mp": 6,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "0": 0.00006,
    "1": 0.00096,
    "2": 0.00502,
    "3": 0.01968,
    "4": 0.0836,
    "5": 0.24386,
    "6": 0.34326,
    "7": 0.21776,
    "8": 0.07372,
    "9": 0.01148,
    "10": 0.00058,
    "11": 0.00002
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    "16": 0,
    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 200,
   "team_name": "Greenland",
   "federation": "GRL",
   "starting_rank": 200,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 6.11138,
   "median_final_mp": 6,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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    "2": 0.00196,
    "3": 0.01094,
    "4": 0.0598,
    "5": 0.2211,
    "6": 0.34044,
    "7": 0.25584,
    "8": 0.09282,
    "9": 0.01554,
    "10": 0.00136,
    "11": 0.00002
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    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 201,
   "team_name": "Guinea",
   "federation": "GUI",
   "starting_rank": 201,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 5.36332,
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   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "0": 0.00082,
    "1": 0.00388,
    "2": 0.01846,
    "3": 0.05434,
    "4": 0.1513,
    "5": 0.29128,
    "6": 0.3016,
    "7": 0.14208,
    "8": 0.03256,
    "9": 0.00354,
    "10": 0.00014
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    "16": 0,
    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 202,
   "team_name": "Laos",
   "federation": "LAO",
   "starting_rank": 202,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 5.51356,
   "median_final_mp": 6,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "1": 0.00154,
    "2": 0.00982,
    "3": 0.04334,
    "4": 0.13408,
    "5": 0.29046,
    "6": 0.31626,
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    "8": 0.03668,
    "9": 0.00382,
    "10": 0.00012
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    "14": 0,
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    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 203,
   "team_name": "Saint Kitts and Nevis",
   "federation": "SKN",
   "starting_rank": 203,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 4.6739,
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   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "0": 0.00402,
    "1": 0.01876,
    "2": 0.05746,
    "3": 0.11978,
    "4": 0.21756,
    "5": 0.28486,
    "6": 0.21024,
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    "8": 0.01194,
    "9": 0.00086
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    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 204,
   "team_name": "Tonga",
   "federation": "TGA",
   "starting_rank": 204,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 4.68032,
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   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "0": 0.00418,
    "1": 0.01808,
    "2": 0.05672,
    "3": 0.12074,
    "4": 0.2174,
    "5": 0.28004,
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    "9": 0.00066
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    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 205,
   "team_name": "Kiribati",
   "federation": "KIR",
   "starting_rank": 205,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 4.971360000000001,
   "median_final_mp": 5,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "1": 0.00784,
    "2": 0.03216,
    "3": 0.09528,
    "4": 0.19938,
    "5": 0.30418,
    "6": 0.24996,
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    "8": 0.0146,
    "9": 0.00106,
    "10": 0.00002
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    "14": 0,
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    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 206,
   "team_name": "Marshall Islands",
   "federation": "MHL",
   "starting_rank": 206,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 4.632980000000001,
   "median_final_mp": 5,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "0": 0.00492,
    "1": 0.02162,
    "2": 0.06194,
    "3": 0.12572,
    "4": 0.21388,
    "5": 0.27508,
    "6": 0.2113,
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    "9": 0.00086,
    "10": 0.00002
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   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0,
    "16": 0,
    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
   }
  }
 ]
}