Olympiad Open 2026

Tournament model details — IND India

Threshold probabilities

Team	P(win)	E[MP]	median	14+ MP	16+ MP	18+ MP	20+ MP
IND India	34.0%	18.04	18	100.0%	97.1%	61.3%	17.5%
USA United States of America	30.5%	17.91	18	100.0%	96.7%	57.7%	15.3%
UZB Uzbekistan	18.9%	17.44	17	100.0%	93.8%	44.3%	8.5%
CHN China	6.5%	16.72	17	99.9%	85.7%	23.4%	2.2%
GER Germany	3.5%	16.42	16	99.9%	80.2%	15.4%	1.0%
AZE Azerbaijan	2.3%	16.34	16	99.8%	78.9%	12.8%	0.6%
NED Netherlands	1.9%	16.24	16	99.7%	75.9%	11.2%	0.5%
HUN Hungary	0.7%	15.95	16	99.3%	67.6%	6.0%	0.1%
FRA France	0.5%	15.87	16	99.1%	64.9%	5.0%	0.1%
ARM Armenia	0.4%	15.84	16	99.1%	63.8%	4.6%	0.1%
ENG England	0.2%	15.57	16	98.2%	53.3%	2.3%	0.0%
UKR Ukraine	0.1%	15.55	16	98.0%	52.8%	2.1%	0.0%
ESP Spain	0.1%	15.50	16	97.9%	50.7%	1.8%	0.0%
TUR Turkiye	0.1%	15.44	15	97.4%	48.6%	1.5%	0.0%
SRB Serbia	0.1%	15.44	15	97.5%	48.4%	1.5%	0.0%

Final MP distribution — IND

Round trajectory — IND

Team × final MP

Spec §10.2 visuals. p_highest_mp counts tied leaders independently (Σ = 1.433); P(win) and the equal split each sum to 1. Pairing fallbacks this run: see pairing_diagnostics.json.

in-round loop: last tick 23:40:51 · round 6: 0/412 boards scored, 0 priced by chess_model, 412 from ratings · board probabilities missing · Polymarket: websocket live, 40 legs

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