Probability of winning Probability of winning (ties at the top decided by the Olympiad tie-break) Dark bar = P(win): level teams separated by Sonneborn-Berger, then game points. Sums to 100%. Tick = ties split equally. Pale band = from finishing top ALONE to finishing top or LEVEL — the tie-break decides where in the band. IND India IND: P(win, split) 39.8% · alone 32.7% · top or level 50.9% ties split equally: 40.4% 39.8% 33%–51% UZB Uzbekistan UZB: P(win, split) 30.6% · alone 18.9% · top or level 33.8% ties split equally: 25.1% 30.6% 19%–34% USA United States of Ame USA: P(win, split) 14.0% · alone 8.7% · top or level 20.6% ties split equally: 13.5% 14.0% 9%–21% GER Germany GER: P(win, split) 5.7% · alone 4.9% · top or level 11.8% ties split equally: 7.6% 5.7% 5%–12% CHN China CHN: P(win, split) 5.5% · alone 3.0% · top or level 8.8% ties split equally: 5.3% 5.5% 3%–9% AZE Azerbaijan AZE: P(win, split) 1.3% · alone 0.9% · top or level 3.8% ties split equally: 1.9% 1.3% 1%–4% NED Netherlands NED: P(win, split) 1.0% · alone 0.9% · top or level 3.6% ties split equally: 1.9% 1.0% 1%–4% FRA France FRA: P(win, split) 0.6% · alone 0.3% · top or level 1.8% ties split equally: 0.9% 0.6% 0%–2% ARM Armenia ARM: P(win, split) 0.5% · alone 0.4% · top or level 2.0% ties split equally: 1.0% 0.5% 0%–2% HUN Hungary HUN: P(win, split) 0.3% · alone 0.3% · top or level 1.9% ties split equally: 0.9% 0.3% 0%–2% ENG England ENG: P(win, split) 0.2% · alone 0.2% · top or level 0.9% ties split equally: 0.4% 0.2% 0%–1% UKR Ukraine UKR: P(win, split) 0.1% · alone 0.1% · top or level 0.6% ties split equally: 0.3% 0.1% 0%–1% ESP Spain ESP: P(win, split) 0.1% · alone 0.0% · top or level 0.5% ties split equally: 0.2% 0.1% 0%–0% POL Poland POL: P(win, split) 0.1% · alone 0.0% · top or level 0.2% ties split equally: 0.1% 0.1% 0%–0% TUR Turkiye TUR: P(win, split) 0.1% · alone 0.0% · top or level 0.4% ties split equally: 0.1% 0.1% 0%–0% P(win) alone–level Spec §10.2 note: in the "top or level" figure tied leaders are counted independently, so that figure can sum to more than 100%. All teams — every probability # Team P(win) P(top on MP, shared) E[MP] median 14+ MP 16+ MP 18+ MP 20+ MP 1 IND India 39.8% 50.9% 18.44 18 100.0% 98.3% 70.9% 25.6% 2 UZB Uzbekistan 30.6% 33.8% 17.85 18 100.0% 95.9% 56.2% 14.6% 3 USA United States of America 14.0% 20.6% 17.24 17 100.0% 94.2% 39.7% 4.0% 4 GER Germany 5.7% 11.8% 16.76 17 99.9% 84.6% 25.4% 3.2% 5 CHN China 5.5% 8.8% 16.57 17 99.9% 83.6% 18.4% 1.1% 6 AZE Azerbaijan 1.3% 3.8% 16.15 16 99.8% 74.7% 8.6% 0.2% 7 NED Netherlands 1.0% 3.6% 16.17 16 99.7% 74.3% 9.9% 0.2% 8 FRA France 0.6% 1.8% 15.88 16 99.2% 64.8% 4.5% 0.1% 9 ARM Armenia 0.5% 2.0% 15.91 16 99.1% 66.2% 5.3% 0.1% 10 HUN Hungary 0.3% 1.9% 15.88 16 99.1% 65.7% 5.2% 0.1% 11 ENG England 0.2% 0.9% 15.58 16 98.0% 53.4% 2.2% <0.1% 12 UKR Ukraine 0.1% 0.6% 15.53 16 98.1% 52.2% 2.0% <0.1% 13 ESP Spain 0.1% 0.5% 15.49 16 97.8% 51.0% 2.0% 0.0% 14 POL Poland 0.1% 0.2% 15.39 15 97.1% 48.0% 1.1% 0.0% 15 TUR Turkiye 0.1% 0.4% 15.43 15 97.5% 48.9% 1.4% 0.0% 16 SRB Serbia <0.1% 0.4% 15.44 15 97.5% 49.5% 1.4% 0.0% 17 IRI Iran <0.1% 0.1% 15.04 15 93.8% 32.9% 0.4% 0.0% 18 GRE Greece <0.1% 0.1% 15.01 15 93.8% 32.9% 0.4% <0.1% 19 ISR Israel <0.1% <0.1% 14.66 15 90.3% 19.2% 0.1% 0.0% 20 CZE Czech Republic <0.1% 0.1% 14.93 15 92.7% 27.6% 0.2% 0.0% 21 ROU Romania <0.1% <0.1% 14.65 15 90.1% 18.3% 0.1% 0.0% 22 CRO Croatia 0.0% 0.0% 14.81 15 89.8% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23 NOR Norway 0.0% <0.1% 14.77 15 91.9% 23.5% 0.2% 0.0% 24 ARG Argentina 0.0% <0.1% 14.59 15 90.0% 15.7% 0.1% 0.0% 25 AUT Austria 0.0% <0.1% 14.48 15 87.6% 10.2% <0.1% 0.0% 26 DEN Denmark 0.0% <0.1% 14.48 14 88.7% 12.2% 0.1% 0.0% 27 ITA Italy 0.0% <0.1% 14.47 14 89.0% 11.6% 0.1% 0.0% 28 BUL Bulgaria 0.0% 0.0% 14.44 14 87.4% 10.8% <0.1% 0.0% 29 GEO Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 14.35 14 83.4% 7.6% <0.1% 0.0% 30 UZB Uzbekistan 2 0.0% <0.1% 14.32 14 83.9% 8.5% <0.1% 0.0% 31 BRA Brazil 0.0% 0.0% 14.16 14 76.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 32 AUS Australia 0.0% 0.0% 14.12 14 74.6% 5.1% <0.1% 0.0% 33 SUI Switzerland 0.0% <0.1% 14.08 14 74.6% 5.8% <0.1% 0.0% 34 SLO Slovenia 0.0% 0.0% 13.99 14 71.6% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 35 KAZ Kazakhstan 0.0% 0.0% 13.92 14 66.4% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 36 SWE Sweden 0.0% <0.1% 13.90 14 67.3% 4.4% <0.1% 0.0% 37 LTU Lithuania 0.0% 0.0% 13.81 14 61.2% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 38 BLR Belarus 0.0% 0.0% 13.74 14 60.9% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 39 SVK Slovakia 0.0% 0.0% 13.73 14 58.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 40 MNE Montenegro 0.0% 0.0% 13.68 14 59.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 41 CAN Canada 0.0% 0.0% 13.61 14 56.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 42 FIN Finland 0.0% 0.0% 13.55 14 50.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43 CUB Cuba 0.0% 0.0% 13.55 14 53.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 44 LAT Latvia 0.0% 0.0% 13.54 14 53.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 45 VIE Vietnam 0.0% <0.1% 13.51 14 53.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 46 ISL Iceland 0.0% 0.0% 13.49 14 52.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 47 MDA Moldova 0.0% 0.0% 13.44 13 46.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 48 BEL Belgium 0.0% 0.0% 13.42 13 45.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 49 POR Portugal 0.0% 0.0% 13.42 13 49.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 50 SGP Singapore 0.0% 0.0% 13.39 13 48.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 51 MGL Mongolia 0.0% 0.0% 13.34 13 46.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 52 INA Indonesia 0.0% 0.0% 13.22 13 41.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 53 PER Peru 0.0% 0.0% 13.12 13 36.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 54 CHI Chile 0.0% 0.0% 12.98 13 30.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 55 UZB Uzbekistan 3 0.0% 0.0% 12.89 13 22.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 56 MKD North Macedonia 0.0% 0.0% 12.79 13 22.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 57 PHI Philippines 0.0% 0.0% 12.74 13 18.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 58 COL Colombia 0.0% 0.0% 12.73 13 14.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 59 BIH Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.0% 0.0% 12.72 13 13.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 60 EST Estonia 0.0% 0.0% 12.64 13 9.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 61 TKM Turkmenistan 0.0% 0.0% 12.64 13 8.2% <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 62 TJK Tajikistan 0.0% 0.0% 12.63 13 12.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 63 SCO Scotland 0.0% 0.0% 12.63 13 13.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 64 BAN Bangladesh 0.0% 0.0% 12.59 13 10.3% <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 65 IRL Ireland 0.0% 0.0% 12.58 13 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 66 URU Uruguay 0.0% 0.0% 12.57 13 9.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 67 BOL Bolivia 0.0% 0.0% 12.52 13 5.4% <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 68 MAS Malaysia 0.0% 0.0% 12.49 12 7.6% <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 69 EGY Egypt 0.0% 0.0% 12.49 13 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70 PAR Paraguay 0.0% 0.0% 12.45 12 7.0% <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 71 NZL New Zealand 0.0% 0.0% 12.39 12 6.5% <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 72 ALB Albania 0.0% 0.0% 12.32 12 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 73 CRC Costa Rica 0.0% 0.0% 12.31 12 6.1% <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 74 KOR South Korea 0.0% 0.0% 12.19 12 4.1% <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 75 MEX Mexico 0.0% 0.0% 12.17 12 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 76 JPN Japan 0.0% 0.0% 12.11 12 5.7% <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 77 RSA South Africa 0.0% 0.0% 11.99 12 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 78 VEN Venezuela 0.0% 0.0% 11.89 12 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 79 KGZ Kyrgyzstan 0.0% 0.0% 11.73 12 1.7% <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 80 ALG Algeria 0.0% 0.0% 11.72 12 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 81 CYP Cyprus 0.0% 0.0% 11.67 12 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 82 KOS Kosovo * 0.0% 0.0% 11.61 12 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 83 TPE Chinese Taipei 0.0% 0.0% 11.60 12 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 84 NGR Nigeria 0.0% 0.0% 11.51 12 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 85 ECU Ecuador 0.0% 0.0% 11.50 12 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 86 AND Andorra 0.0% 0.0% 11.49 12 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 87 DOM Dominican Republic 0.0% 0.0% 11.48 12 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 88 UAE United Arab Emirates 0.0% 0.0% 11.44 11 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 89 LBN Lebanon 0.0% 0.0% 11.44 12 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 90 YEM Yemen 0.0% 0.0% 11.43 11 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 91 ESA El Salvador 0.0% 0.0% 11.43 11 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 92 PAN Panama 0.0% 0.0% 11.42 11 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 93 SYR Syria 0.0% 0.0% 11.42 11 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 94 ANG Angola 0.0% 0.0% 11.42 11 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 95 LUX Luxembourg 0.0% 0.0% 11.42 11 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 96 SRI Sri Lanka 0.0% 0.0% 11.40 11 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 97 GUA Guatemala 0.0% 0.0% 11.36 11 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 98 ZAM Zambia 0.0% 0.0% 11.36 11 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 99 MAD Madagascar 0.0% 0.0% 11.29 11 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100 WLS Wales 0.0% 0.0% 11.21 11 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 101 TTO Trinidad & Tobago 0.0% 0.0% 11.13 11 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 102 SUD Sudan 0.0% 0.0% 10.98 11 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 103 IRQ Iraq 0.0% 0.0% 10.79 11 <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 104 THA Thailand 0.0% 0.0% 10.76 11 <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 105 JAM Jamaica 0.0% 0.0% 10.70 11 <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 106 BAR Barbados 0.0% 0.0% 10.65 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 107 HKG Hong Kong, China 0.0% 0.0% 10.61 11 <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 108 UGA Uganda 0.0% 0.0% 10.61 11 <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 109 MLT Malta 0.0% 0.0% 10.60 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 110 LBA Libya 0.0% 0.0% 10.59 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 111 FAI Faroe Islands 0.0% 0.0% 10.58 11 <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 112 TUN Tunisia 0.0% 0.0% 10.58 11 <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 113 CPV Cape Verde 0.0% 0.0% 10.57 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 114 ZIM Zimbabwe 0.0% 0.0% 10.56 11 <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 115 MNC Monaco 0.0% 0.0% 10.56 11 <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 116 MAR Morocco 0.0% 0.0% 10.55 10 <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 117 JOR Jordan 0.0% 0.0% 10.54 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 118 HON Honduras 0.0% 0.0% 10.54 11 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 119 MOZ Mozambique 0.0% 0.0% 10.53 10 <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 120 SSD South Sudan 0.0% 0.0% 10.53 10 <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 121 MAW Malawi 0.0% 0.0% 10.51 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 122 PUR Puerto Rico 0.0% 0.0% 10.51 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 123 NCA Nicaragua 0.0% 0.0% 10.41 10 <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 124 PAK Pakistan 0.0% 0.0% 10.40 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 125 NAM Namibia 0.0% 0.0% 10.32 10 <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 126 KEN Kenya 0.0% 0.0% 10.26 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 127 NEP Nepal 0.0% 0.0% 10.16 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 128 MYA Myanmar 0.0% 0.0% 10.11 10 <0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 129 PLE Palestine 0.0% 0.0% 10.00 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 130 LIE Liechtenstein 0.0% 0.0% 9.85 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 131 ETH Ethiopia 0.0% 0.0% 9.81 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 132 AFG Afghanistan 0.0% 0.0% 9.76 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 133 CIV Cote d’Ivoire 0.0% 0.0% 9.53 10 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 134 BOT Botswana 0.0% 0.0% 9.51 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 135 SEN Senegal 0.0% 0.0% 9.41 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 136 GUY Guyana 0.0% 0.0% 9.37 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 137 MTN Mauritania 0.0% 0.0% 9.36 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 138 HAI Haiti 0.0% 0.0% 9.35 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 139 BDI Burundi 0.0% 0.0% 9.35 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 140 KSA Saudi Arabia 0.0% 0.0% 9.33 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 141 GUM Guam 0.0% 0.0% 9.28 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 142 CMR Cameroon 0.0% 0.0% 9.27 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 143 CUR Curacao 0.0% 0.0% 9.27 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 144 BRN Bahrain 0.0% 0.0% 9.26 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 145 PLW Palau 0.0% 0.0% 9.25 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 146 SUR Suriname 0.0% 0.0% 9.19 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 147 IOM Isle of Man 0.0% 0.0% 9.17 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 148 SOM Somalia 0.0% 0.0% 9.15 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 149 STP Sao Tome and Principe 0.0% 0.0% 9.06 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 150 LES Lesotho 0.0% 0.0% 9.03 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 151 MDV Maldives 0.0% 0.0% 8.89 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 152 BRU Brunei Darussalam 0.0% 0.0% 8.89 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 153 KUW Kuwait 0.0% 0.0% 8.75 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 154 ARU Aruba 0.0% 0.0% 8.74 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 155 GHA Ghana 0.0% 0.0% 8.67 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 156 MRI Mauritius 0.0% 0.0% 8.59 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 157 MLI Mali 0.0% 0.0% 8.54 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 158 LBR Liberia 0.0% 0.0% 8.53 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 159 OMA Oman 0.0% 0.0% 8.53 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 160 SMR San Marino 0.0% 0.0% 8.49 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 161 CAY Cayman Islands 0.0% 0.0% 8.48 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 162 JCI Jersey 0.0% 0.0% 8.47 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 163 ANT Antigua and Barbuda 0.0% 0.0% 8.46 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 164 GAM Gambia 0.0% 0.0% 8.46 9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 165 TOG Togo 0.0% 0.0% 8.45 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 166 GEQ Equatorial Guinea 0.0% 0.0% 8.44 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 167 BAH Bahamas 0.0% 0.0% 8.42 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 168 TLS Timor-Leste 0.0% 0.0% 8.22 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 169 FIJ Fiji 0.0% 0.0% 8.16 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 170 LCA Saint Lucia 0.0% 0.0% 8.15 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 171 QAT Qatar 0.0% 0.0% 8.06 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 172 GCI Guernsey 0.0% 0.0% 7.97 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 173 SLE Sierra Leone 0.0% 0.0% 7.91 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 174 GAB Gabon 0.0% 0.0% 7.88 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 175 BER Bermuda 0.0% 0.0% 7.84 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 176 COD Democratic Republic of the Congo 0.0% 0.0% 7.81 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 177 MAC Macau, China 0.0% 0.0% 7.77 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 178 SEY Seychelles 0.0% 0.0% 7.75 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 179 TAN Tanzania 0.0% 0.0% 7.71 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 180 COM Comoros Islands 0.0% 0.0% 7.55 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 181 ISV US Virgin Islands 0.0% 0.0% 7.50 8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 182 NRU Nauru 0.0% 0.0% 7.42 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 183 BUR Burkina Faso 0.0% 0.0% 7.35 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 184 SOL Solomon Islands 0.0% 0.0% 7.26 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 185 DJI Djibouti 0.0% 0.0% 7.24 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 186 SWZ Eswatini 0.0% 0.0% 7.22 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 187 NCL New Caledonia 0.0% 0.0% 6.96 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 188 CAF Central African Republic 0.0% 0.0% 6.91 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 189 BHU Bhutan 0.0% 0.0% 6.85 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 190 PNG Papua New Guinea 0.0% 0.0% 6.75 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 191 CHA Chad 0.0% 0.0% 6.73 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 192 DMA Dominica 0.0% 0.0% 6.72 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 193 VIN Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 0.0% 0.0% 6.66 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 194 BIZ Belize 0.0% 0.0% 6.55 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 195 VAN Vanuatu 0.0% 0.0% 6.53 7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 196 CAM Cambodia 0.0% 0.0% 6.31 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 197 IVB British Virgin Islands 0.0% 0.0% 6.29 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 198 GRN Grenada 0.0% 0.0% 6.29 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 199 GRL Greenland 0.0% 0.0% 6.11 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 200 GUI Guinea 0.0% 0.0% 5.90 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 201 NIG Niger 0.0% 0.0% 5.68 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 202 LAO Laos 0.0% 0.0% 5.64 6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 203 TGA Tonga 0.0% 0.0% 5.14 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 204 KIR Kiribati 0.0% 0.0% 4.80 5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 205 SKN Saint Kitts and Nevis 0.0% 0.0% 4.22 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 206 MHL Marshall Islands 0.0% 0.0% 4.01 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
P(win) breaks ties at the top by Sonneborn-Berger then game points inside each trial (D13); "P(top on MP, shared)" counts every tied leader (Σ = 1.423). Market bid – ask in cents; mid = (bid + ask) / 2. Click a row to focus that team.