Olympiad Open 2026

Tournament model details — IND India

Threshold probabilities

Team	P(win)	E[MP]	median	14+ MP	16+ MP	18+ MP	20+ MP
IND India	33.4%	18.01	18	100.0%	97.0%	60.4%	16.8%
USA United States of America	30.4%	17.89	18	100.0%	96.6%	57.3%	14.9%
UZB Uzbekistan	18.8%	17.43	17	100.0%	93.7%	43.8%	8.2%
CHN China	6.9%	16.70	17	99.9%	85.1%	22.9%	2.2%
GER Germany	3.6%	16.40	16	99.8%	79.5%	15.0%	0.9%
AZE Azerbaijan	2.3%	16.32	16	99.8%	78.2%	12.7%	0.6%
NED Netherlands	2.0%	16.22	16	99.7%	75.3%	11.0%	0.5%
HUN Hungary	0.7%	15.93	16	99.2%	66.6%	5.8%	0.2%
FRA France	0.6%	15.85	16	99.1%	63.6%	4.8%	0.1%
ARM Armenia	0.5%	15.83	16	99.0%	63.5%	4.4%	0.1%
ENG England	0.2%	15.54	16	98.0%	52.2%	2.1%	0.0%
UKR Ukraine	0.1%	15.53	16	97.9%	51.8%	2.2%	0.0%
ESP Spain	0.1%	15.49	16	97.8%	50.5%	1.8%	0.0%
SRB Serbia	0.1%	15.41	15	97.2%	47.4%	1.4%	0.0%
TUR Turkiye	0.1%	15.43	15	97.4%	48.0%	1.5%	0.0%

Final MP distribution — IND

Round trajectory — IND

Team × final MP

Spec §10.2 visuals. p_highest_mp counts tied leaders independently (Σ = 1.436); P(win) and the equal split each sum to 1. Pairing fallbacks this run: see pairing_diagnostics.json.

in-round loop: last tick 23:41:52 · round 6: 0/412 boards scored, 0 priced by chess_model, 412 from ratings · board probabilities missing · Polymarket: websocket live, 40 legs

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