{
 "model_version": "mp_monte_carlo/0.2.2",
 "snapshot_hash": "b3d274c71db152d7c5c52a2addd7f8435311a7037cda25275136465b36de872d",
 "snapshot_time": "2026-09-20T17:19:43.571Z",
 "master_seed": 20260917,
 "trials": 50000,
 "run": {
  "model_version": "mp_monte_carlo/0.2.2",
  "snapshot_hash": "b3d274c71db152d7c5c52a2addd7f8435311a7037cda25275136465b36de872d",
  "snapshot_time": "2026-09-20T17:19:43.571Z",
  "snapshot_path": "chess_model_tournament/data/runs/timeline/snapshot_r5.json",
  "config": {
   "_comment": "Spec §4.1 defaults. Every run stamps the RESOLVED config (this + event + CLI overrides) into simulation_summary.json. Changing a calibration value here is a decision (ai/decisions.md) with evidence, never a silent edit.",
   "model_version": "mp_monte_carlo/0.2.2",
   "boards_per_match": 4,
   "match_points": {
    "win": 2,
    "draw": 1,
    "loss": 0
   },
   "ranking_mode": "MP_ONLY",
   "tie_policy": "SHARED_MAX_MP",
   "win_split_policy": "EQUAL_SPLIT",
   "_win_split_comment": "D4: p_win_equal_split = 1/k among k tied leaders, reported beside p_highest_mp. Future: TB_PROXY (spec v1.1).",
   "board_model": {
    "kind": "rating_davidson_softmax",
    "_kind_comment": "D5 (operator 2026-09-17): the board W/D/B comes from an Elo formula — chess_model's pre-game Davidson-softmax form, refit here on the whole human field (1400-2900) with a draw-vs-gap term; artifact below. 'spec_v1_closed_form' (the spec's d0/kappa/H construction) is kept as the alternative and is what the spec text describes.",
    "artifact": "config/board_model_olympiad_v0.2.json",
    "_artifact_comment": "D16 (2026-09-18): fitted on 17,331 Olympiad boards 2014-2024 (tools/fit_board_model_olympiad.py) with a level-by-gap term; beats the relay-corpus fit v0.1 (config/board_model_davidson_v0.1.json, kept) on every held-out Olympiad by 0.010-0.023 nats. v0.1 under-rated an elite favourite by up to 8 points of expected score.",
    "white_advantage_elo": 35,
    "equal_rating_draw_rate": 0.5,
    "draw_decay_elo": 400,
    "_spec_params_comment": "white_advantage_elo / equal_rating_draw_rate / draw_decay_elo are used ONLY by kind=spec_v1_closed_form. Under rating_davidson_softmax the White advantage is the artifact's fitted intercept (~45 Elo).",
    "probability_sum_tolerance": 1e-9,
    "unrated_rating_floor": 1400,
    "_unrated_comment": "D8: Chess-Results prints unrated as Rtg 0; 16 of 205 teams have <4 rated players. Simulated at FIDE's own floor (1400), flagged unrated:true; the snapshot keeps rating:null."
   },
   "team_elo_adjustments": {
    "USA": 6,
    "IND": 25.8,
    "UZB": 19.5,
    "CHN": 0,
    "GER": 11.9,
    "NED": 0,
    "AZE": 11.9,
    "HUN": 0,
    "FRA": 7.9,
    "ARM": 7.6
   },
   "team_elo_adjustments_max_starting_rank": 10,
   "_team_elo_comment": "D35 (operator, 2026-09-20), REPLACING D17's rating-change buckets. Elo added to every player of the team = the mean AGE SHIFT of its strongest four, where the shift is fitted on RESULTS (not on rating change): four age bins relative to 27+, <=20 +31.7, 21-23 +23.8, 24-26 +15.2, 27+ 0, measured with the board model held fixed on 5,939 elite relay games (both players 2600+, 2023-2026, 226 players, 51 federations, population-complete). D17's rating-change rates were selection-inflated (they vanish above 2650) and its 24-30 bucket understated the 24-26 group about fourfold; the one-year lag it assumed IS confirmed by the results fit (1.07 years, CI 0.54-1.64). Evidence and every caveat: docs/rating_lag_review_2026-09-20.md. Applied to seeds 1-10 ONLY, enforced by team_elo_adjustments_max_starting_rank (a federation key alone used to reach Uzbekistan 2 and 3); a team_id key overrides a federation key. Every other team is 0. UZB +30 stays NOT adopted (D15). What-ifs: config/scenarios.json. The backtest applies this only via tools/backtest.mjs --adjustments. Recompute: ages from tools/rating_trajectory.mjs; the bins from data/runs/review_20260920/scripts/.",
   "run_modes": {
    "interactive": 100000,
    "final": 1000000,
    "test": 10000
   },
   "thresholds_mp": [
    14,
    16,
    18,
    20
   ],
   "trajectory_quantiles": [
    0.1,
    0.5,
    0.9
   ],
   "pairing": {
    "bye_enabled": false,
    "bye_mp": 1,
    "bye_game_points": 2,
    "_bye_comment": "FIDE Olympiad Pairing Rules art. 4.3: a bye is 1 matchpoint and 2 gamepoints — NOT the spec's 2 MP (§8.4). Used when crediting a real bye in the snapshot (Kiribati, round 3); the simulator never awards one under D6. Verify against the round-4 'MP before' column.",
    "merge_adjacent_groups_only_when_no_legal_matching": true,
    "pairing_order": "top_down",
    "_order_comment": "Olympiad rules 6.4 pair top groups down to the middle, then bottom groups up, then the middle; the spec (§8.2) pairs top-down only. Implemented as the spec says; TASK-9 measures the divergence."
   }
  },
  "config_hash": "7ec2a044183a19765a91c828d3d2822087035f0542afcb533dad75542edd3d70",
  "artifact": "chess_model_tournament/config/board_model_olympiad_v0.2.json",
  "artifact_sha256": "1f24c5aa9d6e69497a66d333b9f72fbb7117776e0bc924e1633879d45c876074",
  "master_seed": 20260917,
  "trials": 50000,
  "workers": 4,
  "started_at": "2026-09-20T17:19:43.765Z",
  "elapsed_s": 45.158
 },
 "tournament": {
  "tournament_id": "olympiad_open_2026",
  "rounds_total": 11,
  "boards_per_match": 4,
  "team_count": 206,
  "active_teams": [
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  ],
  "excluded_teams": []
 },
 "excluded_teams": [],
 "sums": {
  "p_highest_mp": 1.4225399999999997,
  "p_win_equal_split": 0.9999999999999999,
  "p_win": 1
 },
 "p_win_method": "TB_PROXY (Sonneborn-Berger on the trial, then game points, then shared)",
 "as_of": {
  "last_completed_round": 5,
  "current_round": null
 },
 "note_highest_mp": "p_highest_mp counts every team sharing the maximum MP; tied leaders are counted independently, so the column can sum to more than 1. p_win_equal_split splits a k-way tie 1/k (D4) and sums to 1.",
 "teams": [
  {
   "team_id": 1,
   "team_name": "United States of America",
   "federation": "USA",
   "starting_rank": 1,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 17.216739999999998,
   "median_final_mp": 17,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "13": 0.00006,
    "14": 0.00434,
    "15": 0.05842,
    "16": 0.23414,
    "17": 0.31186,
    "18": 0.24006,
    "19": 0.11244,
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   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.20176,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.08652,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.13284373881673883,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.13783,
   "p_win": 0.13783,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.99994,
    "16": 0.93718,
    "18": 0.39118,
    "20": 0.03868
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 2,
   "team_name": "India",
   "federation": "IND",
   "starting_rank": 2,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 18.4388,
   "median_final_mp": 18,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "14": 0.00134,
    "15": 0.01646,
    "16": 0.08718,
    "17": 0.1852,
    "18": 0.23694,
    "19": 0.21678,
    "20": 0.1572,
    "21": 0.07368,
    "22": 0.02522
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.50956,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.32692,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.40487990548340547,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.39865,
   "p_win": 0.39865,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 1,
    "16": 0.9822,
    "18": 0.70982,
    "20": 0.2561
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 3,
   "team_name": "Uzbekistan",
   "federation": "UZB",
   "starting_rank": 3,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 17.846580000000003,
   "median_final_mp": 18,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "13": 0.00006,
    "14": 0.00338,
    "15": 0.03704,
    "16": 0.14944,
    "17": 0.24822,
    "18": 0.24456,
    "19": 0.17154,
    "20": 0.09948,
    "21": 0.037,
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   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.3354,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.18834,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.2502135158730159,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.30441,
   "p_win": 0.30441,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.99994,
    "16": 0.95952,
    "18": 0.56186,
    "20": 0.14576
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 4,
   "team_name": "China",
   "federation": "CHN",
   "starting_rank": 4,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 16.583099999999998,
   "median_final_mp": 17,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "13": 0.00086,
    "14": 0.01718,
    "15": 0.14316,
    "16": 0.3332,
    "17": 0.31774,
    "18": 0.13224,
    "19": 0.04344,
    "20": 0.01024,
    "21": 0.00194
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.0898,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.03028,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.05340815079365079,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.0559,
   "p_win": 0.0559,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.99914,
    "16": 0.8388,
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    "20": 0.01218
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 5,
   "team_name": "Germany",
   "federation": "GER",
   "starting_rank": 5,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 16.775960000000005,
   "median_final_mp": 17,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "12": 0.00006,
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    "14": 0.02144,
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   "p_win_equal_split": 0.07890272294372294,
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   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 6,
   "team_name": "Netherlands",
   "federation": "NED",
   "starting_rank": 6,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 16.16838,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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   "p_win_equal_split": 0.01840804834054834,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.00937,
   "p_win": 0.00937,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
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   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 7,
   "team_name": "Azerbaijan",
   "federation": "AZE",
   "starting_rank": 7,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 16.1488,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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   "p_highest_mp": 0.03892,
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   "p_win_equal_split": 0.019885650793650796,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.01269,
   "p_win": 0.01269,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.99728,
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   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 8,
   "team_name": "Hungary",
   "federation": "HUN",
   "starting_rank": 8,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.8933,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "12": 0.0001,
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    "14": 0.07026,
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   "p_highest_mp": 0.01746,
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   "p_win_equal_split": 0.008019675324675325,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.00286,
   "p_win": 0.00286,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
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    "18": 0.05062,
    "20": 0.00056
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 9,
   "team_name": "France",
   "federation": "FRA",
   "starting_rank": 9,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.88448,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "11": 0.00002,
    "12": 0.00018,
    "13": 0.00732,
    "14": 0.06636,
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   "p_win_equal_split": 0.009214167388167388,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.00661,
   "p_win": 0.00661,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
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    "20": 0.00082
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 10,
   "team_name": "Armenia",
   "federation": "ARM",
   "starting_rank": 10,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.90336,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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   }
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  {
   "team_id": 11,
   "team_name": "England",
   "federation": "ENG",
   "starting_rank": 11,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.577000000000002,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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    "12": 0.00034,
    "13": 0.01808,
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  {
   "team_id": 12,
   "team_name": "Ukraine",
   "federation": "UKR",
   "starting_rank": 12,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.532079999999999,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "11": 0.00002,
    "12": 0.00084,
    "13": 0.01898,
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   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.00594,
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   "p_win_equal_split": 0.002623222222222223,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.00116,
   "p_win": 0.00116,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.98016,
    "16": 0.52642,
    "18": 0.02018,
    "20": 0.00012
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 13,
   "team_name": "Spain",
   "federation": "ESP",
   "starting_rank": 13,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.488000000000001,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "12": 0.00084,
    "13": 0.02212,
    "14": 0.12922,
    "15": 0.34174,
    "16": 0.36962,
    "17": 0.11644,
    "18": 0.01878,
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    "20": 0.00018
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.00488,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.00066,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.0020872698412698417,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.00106,
   "p_win": 0.00106,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.97704,
    "16": 0.50608,
    "18": 0.02002,
    "20": 0.00018
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 14,
   "team_name": "Turkiye",
   "federation": "TUR",
   "starting_rank": 14,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.437740000000002,
   "median_final_mp": 15,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "11": 0.00004,
    "12": 0.00122,
    "13": 0.02446,
    "14": 0.1337,
    "15": 0.35108,
    "16": 0.371,
    "17": 0.10312,
    "18": 0.01468,
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   "p_highest_mp": 0.0039,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.00034,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.0015280086580086582,
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    "10": 0.00026,
    "11": 0.00002
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   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0,
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    "14": 0,
    "16": 0,
    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 200,
   "team_name": "Greenland",
   "federation": "GRL",
   "starting_rank": 200,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 6.11498,
   "median_final_mp": 6,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "2": 0.00112,
    "3": 0.00946,
    "4": 0.0608,
    "5": 0.21318,
    "6": 0.35568,
    "7": 0.25296,
    "8": 0.09184,
    "9": 0.01386,
    "10": 0.0011
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   "p_highest_mp": 0,
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    "14": 0,
    "16": 0,
    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 201,
   "team_name": "Guinea",
   "federation": "GUI",
   "starting_rank": 201,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 5.89344,
   "median_final_mp": 6,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "3": 0.01548,
    "4": 0.07634,
    "5": 0.27094,
    "6": 0.34832,
    "7": 0.22294,
    "8": 0.05778,
    "9": 0.0078,
    "10": 0.0004
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0,
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   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0,
   "p_win": 0,
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    "14": 0,
    "16": 0,
    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 202,
   "team_name": "Laos",
   "federation": "LAO",
   "starting_rank": 202,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 5.6464799999999995,
   "median_final_mp": 6,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "2": 0.00614,
    "3": 0.02974,
    "4": 0.11916,
    "5": 0.27434,
    "6": 0.34606,
    "7": 0.17998,
    "8": 0.04088,
    "9": 0.00362,
    "10": 0.00008
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0,
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   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0,
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    "14": 0,
    "16": 0,
    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 203,
   "team_name": "Saint Kitts and Nevis",
   "federation": "SKN",
   "starting_rank": 203,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 4.2321599999999995,
   "median_final_mp": 4,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "0": 0.01124,
    "1": 0.03796,
    "2": 0.09492,
    "3": 0.15802,
    "4": 0.23686,
    "5": 0.24536,
    "6": 0.16014,
    "7": 0.04922,
    "8": 0.00586,
    "9": 0.0004,
    "10": 0.00002
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0,
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   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0,
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    "14": 0,
    "16": 0,
    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 204,
   "team_name": "Tonga",
   "federation": "TGA",
   "starting_rank": 204,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 5.1438999999999995,
   "median_final_mp": 5,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "2": 0.02144,
    "3": 0.07234,
    "4": 0.19618,
    "5": 0.30628,
    "6": 0.2797,
    "7": 0.10424,
    "8": 0.01838,
    "9": 0.00144
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0,
   "p_win": 0,
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    "14": 0,
    "16": 0,
    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 205,
   "team_name": "Kiribati",
   "federation": "KIR",
   "starting_rank": 205,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 4.786700000000001,
   "median_final_mp": 5,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "1": 0.01528,
    "2": 0.04696,
    "3": 0.1167,
    "4": 0.20974,
    "5": 0.28816,
    "6": 0.22764,
    "7": 0.0832,
    "8": 0.01148,
    "9": 0.00084
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   "p_highest_mp": 0,
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   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0,
   "p_win": 0,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0,
    "16": 0,
    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 206,
   "team_name": "Marshall Islands",
   "federation": "MHL",
   "starting_rank": 206,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 4.006899999999999,
   "median_final_mp": 4,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "0": 0.01618,
    "1": 0.05234,
    "2": 0.11818,
    "3": 0.17966,
    "4": 0.22652,
    "5": 0.22244,
    "6": 0.13778,
    "7": 0.04128,
    "8": 0.00528,
    "9": 0.00034
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0,
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   "p_win_equal_split": 0,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0,
   "p_win": 0,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0,
    "16": 0,
    "18": 0,
    "20": 0
   }
  }
 ]
}