olympiad_open_2026 — MP Monte Carlo

Pre-tournament After round 1 After round 2 After round 3 After round 4After round 5Now (round 6 paired)

Probability of winning — round 5, every update

15 min · 1 h · 3 h · round · tournament

model · market · both

IND IndiaUZB UzbekistanUSA United States of AmericaGER Germany

CHN ChinaAZE Azerbaijan

All teams — every probability · Polymarket as of 09-21 11:00 (start of round 6)

#	Team	P(win)	Polymarket bid – ask	mid	model − mid	P(top on MP, shared)	E[MP]	median	14+ MP	16+ MP	18+ MP	20+ MP
1	IND India	39.9%	32.0 – 34.0	33.0%	+6.9	51.0%	18.44	18	100.0%	98.2%	71.0%	25.6%
2	UZB Uzbekistan	30.4%	34.0 – 35.0	34.5%	-4.1	33.5%	17.85	18	100.0%	96.0%	56.2%	14.6%
3	USA United States of America	13.8%	10.0 – 12.0	11.0%	+2.8	20.2%	17.22	17	100.0%	93.7%	39.1%	3.9%
4	GER Germany	6.0%	8.9 – 9.6	9.3%	-3.3	12.2%	16.78	17	99.9%	84.7%	26.1%	3.4%
5	CHN China	5.6%	10.0 – 12.0	11.0%	-5.4	9.0%	16.58	17	99.9%	83.9%	18.8%	1.2%
6	AZE Azerbaijan	1.3%	1.8 – 1.9	1.8%	-0.6	3.9%	16.15	16	99.7%	75.0%	8.7%	0.2%
7	NED Netherlands	0.9%	0.5 – 0.7	0.6%	+0.3	3.6%	16.17	16	99.7%	74.6%	10.0%	0.3%
8	FRA France	0.7%	0.9 – 1.6	1.3%	-0.6	1.9%	15.88	16	99.2%	65.0%	4.7%	0.1%
9	ARM Armenia	0.5%	1.7 – 2.1	1.9%	-1.4	1.9%	15.90	16	99.2%	65.4%	5.2%	0.1%
10	HUN Hungary	0.3%	0.4 – 1.3	0.9%	-0.6	1.7%	15.89	16	99.3%	66.3%	5.1%	0.1%
11	ENG England	0.2%	0.2 – 0.3	0.3%	-0.1	0.8%	15.58	16	98.2%	52.9%	2.2%	<0.1%
12	UKR Ukraine	0.1%	0.2 – 0.3	0.3%	-0.1	0.6%	15.53	16	98.0%	52.6%	2.0%	<0.1%
13	ESP Spain	0.1%	0.1 – 0.3	0.2%	-0.1	0.5%	15.49	16	97.7%	50.6%	2.0%	<0.1%
14	POL Poland	0.1%	0.1 – 0.2	0.1%	-0.1	0.3%	15.39	15	97.2%	47.9%	1.1%	<0.1%
15	TUR Turkiye	0.1%	0.3 – 0.8	0.5%	-0.5	0.4%	15.44	15	97.4%	48.9%	1.5%	<0.1%
16	SRB Serbia	<0.1%	0.3 – 0.6	0.5%	-0.4	0.4%	15.44	15	97.5%	49.4%	1.4%	<0.1%
17	IRI Iran	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	0.1%	15.05	15	93.8%	32.8%	0.4%	0.0%
18	GRE Greece	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	0.1%	15.01	15	93.7%	32.5%	0.4%	<0.1%
19	CZE Czech Republic	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	0.1%	14.92	15	92.6%	27.3%	0.2%	0.0%
20	NOR Norway	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.77	15	92.0%	23.5%	0.2%	0.0%
21	ROU Romania	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.64	15	90.1%	18.0%	0.1%	0.0%
22	AUT Austria	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.49	15	87.7%	10.6%	0.1%	0.0%
23	GEO Georgia	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.34	14	83.1%	7.7%	<0.1%	0.0%
24	CRO Croatia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	14.82	15	90.0%	23.0%	0.0%	0.0%
25	ISR Israel	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.66	15	90.3%	19.0%	0.1%	0.0%
26	ARG Argentina	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.59	15	90.3%	15.7%	0.1%	0.0%
27	DEN Denmark	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.49	14	88.9%	12.6%	0.1%	0.0%
28	ITA Italy	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.47	14	88.8%	11.7%	<0.1%	0.0%
29	BUL Bulgaria	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.43	14	87.4%	10.6%	<0.1%	0.0%
30	UZB Uzbekistan 2	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.32	14	83.8%	8.5%	<0.1%	0.0%
31	BRA Brazil	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	14.16	14	76.4%	5.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
32	AUS Australia	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.11	14	74.4%	5.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
33	SUI Switzerland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	14.08	14	74.8%	5.8%	<0.1%	0.0%
34	SLO Slovenia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	14.00	14	72.0%	5.1%	0.0%	0.0%
35	KAZ Kazakhstan	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.91	14	65.3%	3.8%	<0.1%	0.0%
36	SWE Sweden	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.90	14	67.0%	4.6%	<0.1%	0.0%
37	LTU Lithuania	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.80	14	60.9%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%
38	BLR Belarus	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	13.73	14	60.8%	3.0%	<0.1%	0.0%
39	SVK Slovakia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.73	14	57.9%	2.5%	<0.1%	0.0%
40	MNE Montenegro	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.70	14	59.8%	2.5%	0.0%	0.0%
41	CAN Canada	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.62	14	56.5%	1.8%	0.0%	0.0%
42	FIN Finland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.54	14	50.4%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%
43	CUB Cuba	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.54	14	53.6%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%
44	LAT Latvia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.54	14	53.2%	1.2%	0.0%	0.0%
45	VIE Vietnam	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.52	14	53.5%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%
46	ISL Iceland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.50	14	52.9%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%
47	MDA Moldova	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.44	13	46.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%
48	BEL Belgium	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.44	13	46.1%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%
49	POR Portugal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.43	14	50.2%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%
50	SGP Singapore	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.41	13	49.4%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%
51	MGL Mongolia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.36	13	47.4%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
52	INA Indonesia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.23	13	41.9%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
53	PER Peru	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.13	13	37.4%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
54	CHI Chile	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.98	13	30.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
55	UZB Uzbekistan 3	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.89	13	22.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
56	MKD North Macedonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.79	13	21.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
57	PHI Philippines	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.72	13	18.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
58	COL Colombia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.72	13	13.9%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
59	BIH Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.72	13	13.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
60	EST Estonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.64	13	9.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
61	SCO Scotland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.64	13	13.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
62	TJK Tajikistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.64	13	12.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
63	TKM Turkmenistan	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.63	13	8.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
64	BAN Bangladesh	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.58	13	10.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
65	URU Uruguay	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.57	13	9.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
66	IRL Ireland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.57	13	6.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
67	BOL Bolivia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.52	13	5.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
68	MAS Malaysia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.50	12	7.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
69	EGY Egypt	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.49	13	5.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
70	PAR Paraguay	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.45	12	7.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
71	NZL New Zealand	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.39	12	6.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
72	CRC Costa Rica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.31	12	6.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
73	ALB Albania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.31	12	6.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
74	KOR South Korea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.19	12	3.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
75	MEX Mexico	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.18	12	5.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
76	JPN Japan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.10	12	5.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
77	RSA South Africa	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.98	12	4.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
78	VEN Venezuela	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.90	12	3.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
79	ALG Algeria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.72	12	2.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
80	KGZ Kyrgyzstan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.72	12	1.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
81	CYP Cyprus	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.67	12	1.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
82	KOS Kosovo *	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.62	12	1.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
83	TPE Chinese Taipei	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.60	12	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
84	NGR Nigeria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.51	12	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
85	ECU Ecuador	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.49	12	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
86	AND Andorra	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.49	12	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
87	DOM Dominican Republic	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.48	12	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
88	UAE United Arab Emirates	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.44	12	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
89	ESA El Salvador	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.44	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
90	LBN Lebanon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.44	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
91	ANG Angola	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.43	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
92	YEM Yemen	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.43	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
93	PAN Panama	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.42	11	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
94	SYR Syria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.42	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
95	LUX Luxembourg	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.41	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
96	SRI Sri Lanka	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.40	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
97	GUA Guatemala	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.36	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
98	ZAM Zambia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.35	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
99	MAD Madagascar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.28	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
100	WLS Wales	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.20	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
101	TTO Trinidad & Tobago	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.13	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
102	SUD Sudan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.97	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
103	IRQ Iraq	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.81	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
104	THA Thailand	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.76	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
105	JAM Jamaica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.70	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
106	BAR Barbados	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.65	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
107	MLT Malta	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.62	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
108	UGA Uganda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.61	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
109	HKG Hong Kong, China	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.60	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
110	LBA Libya	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.59	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
111	FAI Faroe Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.58	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
112	TUN Tunisia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.58	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
113	CPV Cape Verde	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.58	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
114	ZIM Zimbabwe	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.57	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
115	MAR Morocco	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.56	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
116	MNC Monaco	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.56	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
117	JOR Jordan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.55	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
118	HON Honduras	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.54	11	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
119	SSD South Sudan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.53	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
120	MOZ Mozambique	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.52	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
121	MAW Malawi	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.51	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
122	PUR Puerto Rico	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.51	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
123	NCA Nicaragua	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.41	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
124	PAK Pakistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.40	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
125	NAM Namibia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.33	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
126	KEN Kenya	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.25	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
127	NEP Nepal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.15	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
128	MYA Myanmar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.12	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
129	PLE Palestine	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.01	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
130	LIE Liechtenstein	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.85	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
131	ETH Ethiopia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.81	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
132	AFG Afghanistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.75	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
133	CIV Cote d’Ivoire	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.54	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
134	BOT Botswana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.51	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
135	SEN Senegal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.41	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
136	MTN Mauritania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.36	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
137	GUY Guyana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.35	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
138	HAI Haiti	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.35	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
139	BDI Burundi	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.34	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
140	KSA Saudi Arabia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.34	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
141	GUM Guam	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.27	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
142	CUR Curacao	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.27	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
143	CMR Cameroon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.27	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
144	BRN Bahrain	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.26	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
145	PLW Palau	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.25	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
146	SUR Suriname	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.19	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
147	IOM Isle of Man	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.18	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
148	SOM Somalia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.16	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
149	STP Sao Tome and Principe	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.05	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
150	LES Lesotho	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.04	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
151	BRU Brunei Darussalam	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.89	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
152	MDV Maldives	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.88	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
153	KUW Kuwait	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.76	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
154	ARU Aruba	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.74	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
155	GHA Ghana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.67	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
156	MRI Mauritius	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.57	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
157	MLI Mali	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.53	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
158	LBR Liberia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.53	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
159	OMA Oman	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.51	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
160	SMR San Marino	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.49	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
161	CAY Cayman Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.48	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
162	ANT Antigua and Barbuda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.47	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
163	GAM Gambia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.47	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
164	TOG Togo	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.47	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
165	JCI Jersey	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.46	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
166	GEQ Equatorial Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.43	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
167	BAH Bahamas	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.42	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
168	TLS Timor-Leste	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.22	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
169	LCA Saint Lucia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.17	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
170	FIJ Fiji	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.17	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
171	QAT Qatar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.05	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
172	GCI Guernsey	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.97	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
173	SLE Sierra Leone	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.90	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
174	GAB Gabon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.89	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
175	BER Bermuda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.85	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
176	COD Democratic Republic of the Congo	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.82	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
177	MAC Macau, China	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.77	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
178	SEY Seychelles	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.75	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
179	TAN Tanzania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.71	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
180	COM Comoros Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.56	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
181	ISV US Virgin Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.50	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
182	NRU Nauru	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.43	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
183	BUR Burkina Faso	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.35	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
184	SOL Solomon Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.26	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
185	DJI Djibouti	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.24	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
186	SWZ Eswatini	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.23	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
187	NCL New Caledonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.95	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
188	CAF Central African Republic	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.90	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
189	BHU Bhutan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.85	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
190	PNG Papua New Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.73	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
191	DMA Dominica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.72	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
192	CHA Chad	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.71	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
193	VIN Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.65	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
194	BIZ Belize	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.55	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
195	VAN Vanuatu	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.52	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
196	CAM Cambodia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.31	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
197	IVB British Virgin Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.29	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
198	GRN Grenada	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.29	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
199	GRL Greenland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.11	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
200	GUI Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.89	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
201	NIG Niger	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.67	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
202	LAO Laos	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.65	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
203	TGA Tonga	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.14	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
204	KIR Kiribati	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.79	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
205	SKN Saint Kitts and Nevis	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.23	4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
206	MHL Marshall Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.01	4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

P(win) breaks ties at the top by Sonneborn-Berger then game points inside each trial (D13); "P(top on MP, shared)" counts every tied leader (Σ = 1.423). Market bid – ask in cents; mid = (bid + ask) / 2. Click a row to focus that team.

in-round loop: last tick 23:43:53 · round 6: 0/412 boards scored, 0 priced by chess_model, 412 from ratings · board probabilities missing · 3227 P(win) updates in round 5, last 16:56:21 · Polymarket: websocket live, 40 legs

json · market json · latest single run

Olympiad Open 2026

Probability of winning — round 5, every update

All teams — every probability · Polymarket as of 09-21 11:00 (start of round 6)