olympiad_open_2026 — MP Monte Carlo

Pre-tournament After round 1 After round 2 After round 3After round 4After round 5 Now (round 6 paired)

Probability of winning — round 4, every update

15 min · 1 h · 3 h · round · tournament

probability · delta

model · market · both

USA United States of AmericaIND IndiaUZB UzbekistanCHN China

GER GermanyAZE AzerbaijanNED NetherlandsHUN HungaryFRA France

All teams — every probability · Polymarket as of 09-20 11:00 (start of round 5)

#	Team	P(win)	Polymarket bid – ask	mid	model − mid	P(top on MP, shared)	E[MP]	median	14+ MP	16+ MP	18+ MP	20+ MP
1	IND India	32.2%	32.0 – 34.0	33.0%	-0.8	40.6%	18.10	18	100.0%	97.2%	62.2%	19.1%
2	USA United States of America	30.3%	10.0 – 12.0	11.0%	+19.3	37.9%	18.00	18	100.0%	96.8%	59.4%	17.3%
3	UZB Uzbekistan	19.6%	34.0 – 35.0	34.5%	-14.9	25.8%	17.51	17	100.0%	93.8%	46.6%	9.9%
4	CHN China	8.5%	10.0 – 12.0	11.0%	-2.5	11.8%	16.77	17	99.9%	86.0%	25.2%	2.9%
5	GER Germany	3.3%	8.9 – 9.6	9.3%	-5.9	7.2%	16.45	16	99.8%	80.1%	16.9%	1.2%
6	AZE Azerbaijan	1.8%	1.8 – 1.9	1.8%	-0.0	4.3%	16.21	16	99.7%	75.4%	9.9%	0.4%
7	NED Netherlands	1.8%	0.5 – 0.7	0.6%	+1.2	5.0%	16.26	16	99.7%	75.7%	12.4%	0.7%
8	FRA France	0.7%	0.9 – 1.6	1.3%	-0.6	1.5%	15.82	16	99.1%	62.5%	3.9%	0.1%
9	HUN Hungary	0.6%	0.4 – 1.3	0.9%	-0.2	2.3%	15.96	16	99.3%	67.7%	6.3%	0.2%
10	ARM Armenia	0.5%	1.7 – 2.1	1.9%	-1.4	1.7%	15.87	16	99.2%	65.0%	4.8%	0.1%
11	ENG England	0.1%	0.2 – 0.3	0.3%	-0.1	0.6%	15.54	16	98.1%	52.0%	1.8%	<0.1%
12	ESP Spain	0.1%	0.1 – 0.3	0.2%	-0.1	0.5%	15.49	16	97.8%	50.8%	1.7%	<0.1%
13	POL Poland	0.1%	0.1 – 0.2	0.1%	-0.1	0.3%	15.38	15	97.0%	47.2%	1.1%	<0.1%
14	UKR Ukraine	0.1%	0.2 – 0.3	0.3%	-0.2	0.5%	15.52	16	97.9%	51.7%	2.0%	<0.1%
15	TUR Turkiye	0.1%	0.3 – 0.8	0.5%	-0.5	0.4%	15.44	15	97.5%	49.0%	1.4%	<0.1%
16	SRB Serbia	<0.1%	0.3 – 0.6	0.5%	-0.4	0.3%	15.42	15	97.4%	48.3%	1.3%	<0.1%
17	IRI Iran	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	0.1%	15.01	15	93.6%	31.6%	0.3%	<0.1%
18	CZE Czech Republic	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	0.1%	14.94	15	93.0%	28.4%	0.3%	0.0%
19	NOR Norway	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	0.1%	14.81	15	92.4%	23.8%	0.2%	0.0%
20	GRE Greece	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	0.1%	14.97	15	93.5%	30.8%	0.3%	0.0%
21	CRO Croatia	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	0.1%	14.99	15	93.0%	30.7%	0.3%	0.0%
22	ISR Israel	<0.1%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.66	15	90.4%	18.7%	0.1%	0.0%
23	ROU Romania	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.61	15	89.3%	15.9%	0.1%	0.0%
24	ARG Argentina	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.58	15	89.9%	15.1%	0.1%	0.0%
25	ITA Italy	<0.1%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.51	14	88.9%	12.4%	0.1%	0.0%
26	LTU Lithuania	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	13.81	14	61.5%	3.5%	<0.1%	0.0%
27	DEN Denmark	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.50	15	88.0%	11.4%	0.1%	0.0%
28	AUT Austria	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.50	14	88.9%	12.0%	0.1%	0.0%
29	BUL Bulgaria	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.42	14	86.7%	10.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
30	GEO Georgia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.35	14	83.6%	8.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
31	UZB Uzbekistan 2	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	14.31	14	83.0%	8.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
32	BRA Brazil	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	14.16	14	76.6%	5.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
33	AUS Australia	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.14	14	76.7%	6.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
34	SUI Switzerland	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.06	14	73.6%	5.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
35	SLO Slovenia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.00	14	71.4%	5.0%	<0.1%	0.0%
36	KAZ Kazakhstan	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	13.93	14	68.3%	4.6%	<0.1%	0.0%
37	SWE Sweden	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.87	14	65.9%	4.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
38	SVK Slovakia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.74	14	60.8%	2.9%	0.0%	0.0%
39	BLR Belarus	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	13.73	14	60.3%	2.8%	<0.1%	0.0%
40	MNE Montenegro	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	13.69	14	58.9%	2.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
41	CAN Canada	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.61	14	55.6%	1.8%	0.0%	0.0%
42	FIN Finland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.54	14	50.4%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%
43	LAT Latvia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.53	14	52.1%	1.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
44	CUB Cuba	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.52	14	52.1%	1.0%	<0.1%	0.0%
45	VIE Vietnam	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.49	14	51.6%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%
46	ISL Iceland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.48	14	51.4%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%
47	MDA Moldova	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.44	13	46.3%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%
48	BEL Belgium	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.43	13	46.0%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%
49	SGP Singapore	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.38	13	47.2%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%
50	POR Portugal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.34	13	42.3%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
51	MGL Mongolia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.34	13	45.7%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
52	INA Indonesia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.21	13	40.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
53	PER Peru	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.13	13	36.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
54	CHI Chile	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.99	13	30.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
55	UZB Uzbekistan 3	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.91	13	26.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
56	MKD North Macedonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.80	13	21.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
57	PHI Philippines	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.75	13	18.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
58	COL Colombia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.72	13	13.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
59	BIH Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.70	13	15.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
60	SCO Scotland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.66	13	13.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
61	TJK Tajikistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.65	13	12.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
62	BAN Bangladesh	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.62	13	8.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
63	EST Estonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.61	13	11.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
64	TKM Turkmenistan	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.59	13	9.9%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
65	URU Uruguay	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.58	13	9.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
66	IRL Ireland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.56	13	6.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
67	EGY Egypt	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.50	13	5.9%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
68	BOL Bolivia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.49	12	7.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
69	MAS Malaysia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.49	12	7.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
70	PAR Paraguay	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.47	12	7.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
71	NZL New Zealand	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.40	12	6.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
72	ALB Albania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.35	12	6.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
73	CRC Costa Rica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.30	12	5.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
74	KOR South Korea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.22	12	4.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
75	MEX Mexico	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.15	12	5.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
76	JPN Japan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.05	12	4.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
77	RSA South Africa	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.97	12	3.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
78	VEN Venezuela	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.88	12	3.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
79	KGZ Kyrgyzstan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.73	12	1.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
80	ALG Algeria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.71	12	2.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
81	CYP Cyprus	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.66	12	1.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
82	KOS Kosovo *	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.61	12	1.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
83	TPE Chinese Taipei	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.59	12	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
84	NGR Nigeria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.50	12	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
85	AND Andorra	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.48	12	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
86	ECU Ecuador	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.48	12	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
87	DOM Dominican Republic	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.47	11	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
88	UAE United Arab Emirates	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.43	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
89	ESA El Salvador	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.43	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
90	YEM Yemen	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.42	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
91	ANG Angola	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.42	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
92	PAN Panama	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.42	11	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
93	SYR Syria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.40	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
94	ZAM Zambia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.40	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
95	LUX Luxembourg	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.40	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
96	SRI Sri Lanka	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.39	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
97	LBN Lebanon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.39	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
98	GUA Guatemala	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.35	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
99	MAD Madagascar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.29	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
100	WLS Wales	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.23	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
101	TTO Trinidad & Tobago	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.12	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
102	SUD Sudan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.99	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
103	IRQ Iraq	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.83	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
104	THA Thailand	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.74	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
105	JAM Jamaica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.67	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
106	BAR Barbados	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.64	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
107	UGA Uganda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.61	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
108	MLT Malta	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.61	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
109	HKG Hong Kong, China	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.59	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
110	LBA Libya	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.58	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
111	FAI Faroe Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.58	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
112	TUN Tunisia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.58	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
113	ZIM Zimbabwe	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.58	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
114	MAR Morocco	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.58	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
115	MNC Monaco	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.56	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
116	CPV Cape Verde	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.56	11	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
117	JOR Jordan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.55	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
118	SSD South Sudan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.53	11	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
119	MOZ Mozambique	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.53	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
120	HON Honduras	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.53	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
121	MAW Malawi	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.52	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
122	PUR Puerto Rico	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.51	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
123	NCA Nicaragua	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.41	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
124	PAK Pakistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.37	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
125	NAM Namibia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.32	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
126	KEN Kenya	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.25	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
127	NEP Nepal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.15	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
128	MYA Myanmar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.08	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
129	PLE Palestine	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.98	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
130	LIE Liechtenstein	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.86	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
131	ETH Ethiopia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.80	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
132	AFG Afghanistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.75	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
133	CIV Cote d’Ivoire	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.53	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
134	BOT Botswana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.53	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
135	SEN Senegal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.40	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
136	GUY Guyana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.36	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
137	BDI Burundi	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.36	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
138	MTN Mauritania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.36	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
139	HAI Haiti	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.35	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
140	PLW Palau	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.28	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
141	KSA Saudi Arabia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.28	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
142	GUM Guam	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.27	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
143	CMR Cameroon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.26	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
144	CUR Curacao	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.26	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
145	BRN Bahrain	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.25	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
146	IOM Isle of Man	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.19	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
147	SUR Suriname	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.17	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
148	SOM Somalia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.15	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
149	STP Sao Tome and Principe	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.07	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
150	LES Lesotho	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.03	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
151	BRU Brunei Darussalam	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.93	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
152	MDV Maldives	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.87	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
153	KUW Kuwait	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.80	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
154	ARU Aruba	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.74	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
155	GHA Ghana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.67	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
156	MRI Mauritius	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.53	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
157	MLI Mali	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.53	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
158	LBR Liberia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.52	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
159	OMA Oman	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.50	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
160	SMR San Marino	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.50	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
161	CAY Cayman Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.49	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
162	GAM Gambia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.48	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
163	ANT Antigua and Barbuda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.47	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
164	TOG Togo	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.47	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
165	JCI Jersey	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.47	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
166	GEQ Equatorial Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.45	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
167	BAH Bahamas	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.41	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
168	TLS Timor-Leste	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.22	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
169	LCA Saint Lucia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.19	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
170	FIJ Fiji	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.15	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
171	QAT Qatar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.08	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
172	GCI Guernsey	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.97	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
173	SLE Sierra Leone	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.95	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
174	GAB Gabon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.87	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
175	BER Bermuda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.79	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
176	COD Democratic Republic of the Congo	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.78	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
177	SEY Seychelles	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.78	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
178	TAN Tanzania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.74	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
179	MAC Macau, China	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.70	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
180	ISV US Virgin Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.53	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
181	COM Comoros Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.46	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
182	NRU Nauru	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.42	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
183	BUR Burkina Faso	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.32	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
184	SOL Solomon Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.30	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
185	SWZ Eswatini	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.17	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
186	DJI Djibouti	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.13	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
187	NCL New Caledonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.02	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
188	BHU Bhutan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.93	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
189	CAF Central African Republic	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.86	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
190	PNG Papua New Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.82	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
191	CHA Chad	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.80	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
192	DMA Dominica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.76	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
193	VIN Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.65	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
194	VAN Vanuatu	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.52	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
195	CAM Cambodia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.37	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
196	BIZ Belize	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.36	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
197	IVB British Virgin Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.34	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
198	GRN Grenada	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.32	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
199	GRL Greenland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.16	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
200	NIG Niger	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.75	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
201	GUI Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.70	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
202	LAO Laos	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.65	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
203	TGA Tonga	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.12	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
204	KIR Kiribati	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.87	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
205	SKN Saint Kitts and Nevis	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.37	4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
206	MHL Marshall Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.16	4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

P(win) breaks ties at the top by Sonneborn-Berger then game points inside each trial (D13); "P(top on MP, shared)" counts every tied leader (Σ = 1.410). Market bid – ask in cents; mid = (bid + ask) / 2. Click a row to focus that team.

in-round loop: last tick 23:43:53 · round 6: 0/412 boards scored, 0 priced by chess_model, 412 from ratings · board probabilities missing · 2396 P(win) updates in round 4, last 17:07:41 · Polymarket: websocket live, 40 legs

json · market json · latest single run

Olympiad Open 2026

Probability of winning — round 4, every update

All teams — every probability · Polymarket as of 09-20 11:00 (start of round 5)