Olympiad Open 2026

Probability of winning — the whole event, every update

Click a line (or its name) to focus that team; click it again to clear.

All teams — every probability · Polymarket as of 09-16 11:00 (start of round 1)

#	Team	P(win)	Polymarket bid – ask	mid	model − mid	P(top on MP, shared)	E[MP]	median	14+ MP	16+ MP	18+ MP	20+ MP
1	IND India	34.0%	32.0 – 34.0	33.0%	+1.0	41.3%	18.04	18	100.0%	97.1%	61.3%	17.5%
2	USA United States of America	30.5%	10.0 – 12.0	11.0%	+19.5	37.4%	17.91	18	100.0%	96.7%	57.7%	15.3%
3	UZB Uzbekistan	18.9%	34.0 – 35.0	34.5%	-15.6	26.0%	17.44	17	100.0%	93.8%	44.3%	8.5%
4	CHN China	6.5%	10.0 – 12.0	11.0%	-4.5	11.6%	16.72	17	99.9%	85.7%	23.4%	2.2%
5	GER Germany	3.5%	8.9 – 9.6	9.3%	-5.8	7.2%	16.42	16	99.9%	80.2%	15.4%	1.0%
6	AZE Azerbaijan	2.3%	1.8 – 1.9	1.8%	+0.4	5.5%	16.34	16	99.8%	78.9%	12.8%	0.6%
7	NED Netherlands	1.9%	0.5 – 0.7	0.6%	+1.4	4.8%	16.24	16	99.7%	75.9%	11.2%	0.5%
8	HUN Hungary	0.7%	0.4 – 1.3	0.9%	-0.1	2.3%	15.95	16	99.3%	67.6%	6.0%	0.1%
9	FRA France	0.5%	0.9 – 1.6	1.3%	-0.7	1.8%	15.87	16	99.1%	64.9%	5.0%	0.1%
10	ARM Armenia	0.4%	1.7 – 2.1	1.9%	-1.5	1.7%	15.84	16	99.1%	63.8%	4.6%	0.1%
11	ENG England	0.2%	0.2 – 0.3	0.3%	-0.1	0.7%	15.57	16	98.2%	53.3%	2.3%	<0.1%
12	UKR Ukraine	0.1%	0.2 – 0.3	0.3%	-0.1	0.7%	15.55	16	98.0%	52.8%	2.1%	<0.1%
13	ESP Spain	0.1%	0.1 – 0.3	0.2%	-0.1	0.5%	15.50	16	97.9%	50.7%	1.8%	<0.1%
14	TUR Turkiye	0.1%	0.3 – 0.8	0.5%	-0.5	0.4%	15.44	15	97.4%	48.6%	1.5%	<0.1%
15	SRB Serbia	0.1%	0.3 – 0.6	0.5%	-0.4	0.4%	15.44	15	97.5%	48.4%	1.5%	<0.1%
16	POL Poland	<0.1%	0.1 – 0.2	0.1%	-0.1	0.3%	15.39	15	97.2%	46.7%	1.3%	<0.1%
17	CRO Croatia	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.2%	15.07	15	94.1%	34.4%	0.5%	<0.1%
18	IRI Iran	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.1%	15.02	15	93.5%	32.2%	0.4%	<0.1%
19	GRE Greece	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.1%	14.97	15	93.3%	30.5%	0.4%	0.0%
20	CZE Czech Republic	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.1%	14.94	15	93.3%	29.1%	0.4%	0.0%
21	NOR Norway	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.1%	14.82	15	92.3%	24.3%	0.2%	0.0%
22	ROU Romania	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.62	15	90.0%	16.4%	0.1%	0.0%
23	DEN Denmark	<0.1%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.55	15	89.6%	13.3%	0.1%	0.0%
24	ARG Argentina	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.59	15	90.1%	14.8%	0.1%	<0.1%
25	AUT Austria	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.51	14	89.0%	11.8%	0.1%	<0.1%
26	UZB Uzbekistan 2	<0.1%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.31	14	83.2%	8.0%	<0.1%	0.0%
27	SUI Switzerland	<0.1%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.09	14	74.6%	5.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
28	ISR Israel	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.67	15	90.5%	18.4%	0.1%	0.0%
29	ITA Italy	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.51	15	89.0%	12.1%	0.1%	0.0%
30	BUL Bulgaria	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.42	14	86.6%	9.8%	<0.1%	0.0%
31	GEO Georgia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.36	14	85.0%	8.7%	<0.1%	0.0%
32	BRA Brazil	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.21	14	79.4%	6.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
33	AUS Australia	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.15	14	77.1%	5.7%	<0.1%	0.0%
34	SLO Slovenia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.04	14	72.5%	5.0%	<0.1%	0.0%
35	KAZ Kazakhstan	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	13.97	14	69.3%	4.5%	<0.1%	0.0%
36	SWE Sweden	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.90	14	66.5%	4.0%	<0.1%	0.0%
37	LTU Lithuania	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.83	14	63.7%	3.5%	<0.1%	0.0%
38	SVK Slovakia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.76	14	60.8%	2.7%	<0.1%	0.0%
39	BLR Belarus	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.73	14	59.6%	2.6%	<0.1%	0.0%
40	MNE Montenegro	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.70	14	58.5%	2.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
41	CAN Canada	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.61	14	55.0%	1.7%	0.0%	0.0%
42	FIN Finland	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	13.58	14	53.5%	1.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
43	CUB Cuba	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.53	14	51.6%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%
44	LAT Latvia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.53	14	51.4%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%
45	VIE Vietnam	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.49	14	50.1%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%
46	BEL Belgium	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.48	13	49.6%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%
47	MDA Moldova	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.48	13	49.4%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%
48	ISL Iceland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.48	14	50.1%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%
49	POR Portugal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.42	13	47.8%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%
50	SGP Singapore	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.38	13	46.2%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
51	MGL Mongolia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.36	13	45.3%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
52	INA Indonesia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.23	13	40.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
53	PER Peru	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.16	13	36.6%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
54	CHI Chile	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.02	13	30.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
55	UZB Uzbekistan 3	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.95	13	27.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
56	MKD North Macedonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.83	13	21.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
57	PHI Philippines	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.78	13	19.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
58	COL Colombia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.74	13	16.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
59	BIH Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.71	13	15.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
60	SCO Scotland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.67	13	13.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
61	TJK Tajikistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.66	13	12.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
62	EST Estonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.61	13	10.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
63	BAN Bangladesh	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.60	13	9.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
64	TKM Turkmenistan	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.60	13	9.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
65	URU Uruguay	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.58	13	9.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
66	IRL Ireland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.54	13	8.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
67	BOL Bolivia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.52	13	7.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
68	MAS Malaysia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.52	12	7.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
69	EGY Egypt	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.51	13	7.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
70	PAR Paraguay	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.49	12	7.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
71	NZL New Zealand	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.45	12	6.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
72	ALB Albania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.39	12	5.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
73	CRC Costa Rica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.36	12	5.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
74	KOR South Korea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.31	12	5.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
75	MEX Mexico	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.23	12	4.9%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
76	JPN Japan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.13	12	4.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
77	RSA South Africa	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.04	12	3.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
78	VEN Venezuela	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.96	12	3.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
79	KGZ Kyrgyzstan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.84	12	2.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
80	ALG Algeria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.76	12	1.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
81	CYP Cyprus	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.70	12	1.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
82	KOS Kosovo *	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.64	12	1.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
83	TPE Chinese Taipei	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.61	12	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
84	NGR Nigeria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.51	12	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
85	AND Andorra	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.49	11	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
86	ECU Ecuador	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.48	11	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
87	DOM Dominican Republic	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.47	11	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
88	LBN Lebanon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.43	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
89	UAE United Arab Emirates	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.43	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
90	ESA El Salvador	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.42	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
91	ANG Angola	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.42	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
92	PAN Panama	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.41	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
93	SYR Syria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.41	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
94	LUX Luxembourg	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.41	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
95	YEM Yemen	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.41	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
96	ZAM Zambia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.39	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
97	SRI Sri Lanka	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.38	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
98	GUA Guatemala	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.37	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
99	MAD Madagascar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.32	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
100	WLS Wales	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.28	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
101	TTO Trinidad & Tobago	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.22	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
102	SUD Sudan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.08	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
103	IRQ Iraq	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.94	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
104	THA Thailand	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.84	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
105	JAM Jamaica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.76	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
106	UGA Uganda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.68	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
107	FAI Faroe Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.65	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
108	HKG Hong Kong, China	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.63	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
109	BAR Barbados	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.62	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
110	MAR Morocco	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.61	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
111	TUN Tunisia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.60	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
112	LBA Libya	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.60	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
113	MLT Malta	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.59	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
114	ZIM Zimbabwe	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.59	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
115	MNC Monaco	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.58	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
116	JOR Jordan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.55	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
117	CPV Cape Verde	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.55	11	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
118	MOZ Mozambique	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.55	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
119	SSD South Sudan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.54	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
120	MAW Malawi	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.53	11	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
121	HON Honduras	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.53	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
122	PUR Puerto Rico	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.52	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
123	NCA Nicaragua	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.44	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
124	PAK Pakistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.40	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
125	NAM Namibia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.39	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
126	KEN Kenya	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.33	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
127	NEP Nepal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.25	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
128	MYA Myanmar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.18	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
129	PLE Palestine	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.09	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
130	LIE Liechtenstein	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.99	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
131	ETH Ethiopia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.89	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
132	AFG Afghanistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.84	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
133	BOT Botswana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.63	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
134	CIV Cote d’Ivoire	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.57	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
135	SEN Senegal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.44	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
136	BDI Burundi	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.39	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
137	GUY Guyana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.38	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
138	MTN Mauritania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.37	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
139	HAI Haiti	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.36	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
140	PLW Palau	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.29	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
141	KSA Saudi Arabia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.28	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
142	GUM Guam	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.27	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
143	BRN Bahrain	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.27	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
144	CUR Curacao	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.26	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
145	CMR Cameroon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.26	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
146	IOM Isle of Man	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.23	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
147	SOM Somalia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.20	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
148	SUR Suriname	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.20	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
149	STP Sao Tome and Principe	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.12	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
150	LES Lesotho	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.08	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
151	BRU Brunei Darussalam	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.01	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
152	MDV Maldives	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.96	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
153	KUW Kuwait	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.89	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
154	ARU Aruba	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.83	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
155	GHA Ghana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.71	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
156	MRI Mauritius	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.60	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
157	MLI Mali	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.58	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
158	LBR Liberia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.57	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
159	CAY Cayman Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.53	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
160	GAM Gambia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.52	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
161	TOG Togo	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.50	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
162	JCI Jersey	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.50	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
163	OMA Oman	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.49	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
164	ANT Antigua and Barbuda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.49	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
165	SMR San Marino	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.48	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
166	GEQ Equatorial Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.46	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
167	BAH Bahamas	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.44	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
168	LCA Saint Lucia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.24	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
169	TLS Timor-Leste	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.22	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
170	FIJ Fiji	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.21	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
171	QAT Qatar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.14	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
172	GCI Guernsey	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.06	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
173	SLE Sierra Leone	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.00	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
174	GAB Gabon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.94	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
175	BER Bermuda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.84	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
176	COD Democratic Republic of the Congo	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.83	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
177	SEY Seychelles	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.81	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
178	TAN Tanzania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.73	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
179	MAC Macau, China	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.73	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
180	COM Comoros Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.61	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
181	ISV US Virgin Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.56	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
182	NRU Nauru	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.46	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
183	SOL Solomon Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.43	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
184	BUR Burkina Faso	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.35	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
185	DJI Djibouti	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.27	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
186	SWZ Eswatini	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.21	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
187	NCL New Caledonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.08	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
188	CAF Central African Republic	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.01	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
189	CHA Chad	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.00	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
190	BHU Bhutan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.97	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
191	PNG Papua New Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.82	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
192	DMA Dominica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.77	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
193	VIN Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.77	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
194	VAN Vanuatu	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.61	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
195	BIZ Belize	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.43	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
196	CAM Cambodia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.34	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
197	IVB British Virgin Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.32	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
198	GRN Grenada	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.31	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
199	GRL Greenland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.09	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
200	NIG Niger	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.04	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
201	GUI Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.49	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
202	LAO Laos	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.42	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
203	SKN Saint Kitts and Nevis	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.85	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
204	TGA Tonga	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.84	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
205	MHL Marshall Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.81	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
206	KIR Kiribati	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.77	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

P(win) breaks ties at the top by Sonneborn-Berger then game points inside each trial (D13); "P(top on MP, shared)" counts every tied leader (Σ = 1.433). Market bid – ask in cents; mid = (bid + ask) / 2. Click a row to focus that team.

in-round loop: last tick 23:43:53 · round 6: 0/412 boards scored, 0 priced by chess_model, 412 from ratings · board probabilities missing · Polymarket: websocket live, 40 legs

json · market json · latest single run