olympiad_open_2026 — MP Monte Carlo

Pre-tournament After round 1 After round 2After round 3After round 4 After round 5 Now (round 6 paired)

Probability of winning — round 3, every update

15 min · 1 h · 3 h · round · tournament

probability · delta

model · market · both

IND IndiaUSA United States of AmericaUZB UzbekistanCHN China

GER GermanyAZE AzerbaijanNED Netherlands

All teams — every probability · Polymarket as of 09-19 11:00 (start of round 4)

#	Team	P(win)	Polymarket bid – ask	mid	model − mid	P(top on MP, shared)	E[MP]	median	14+ MP	16+ MP	18+ MP	20+ MP
1	IND India	32.0%	32.0 – 34.0	33.0%	-1.0	40.5%	18.02	18	100.0%	96.9%	60.2%	17.4%
2	USA United States of America	27.4%	10.0 – 12.0	11.0%	+16.4	37.8%	17.91	18	100.0%	96.6%	57.6%	15.6%
3	UZB Uzbekistan	21.3%	34.0 – 35.0	34.5%	-13.2	25.8%	17.43	17	100.0%	93.8%	43.9%	8.6%
4	CHN China	8.2%	10.0 – 12.0	11.0%	-2.8	11.8%	16.71	17	99.9%	85.2%	23.2%	2.4%
5	GER Germany	3.8%	8.9 – 9.6	9.3%	-5.5	7.3%	16.40	16	99.8%	79.5%	15.3%	0.9%
6	AZE Azerbaijan	2.7%	1.8 – 1.9	1.8%	+0.9	5.6%	16.31	16	99.7%	77.8%	12.9%	0.6%
7	NED Netherlands	1.8%	0.5 – 0.7	0.6%	+1.2	5.1%	16.23	16	99.7%	75.5%	11.6%	0.5%
8	FRA France	0.9%	0.9 – 1.6	1.3%	-0.4	1.9%	15.85	16	99.1%	64.1%	4.8%	0.1%
9	HUN Hungary	0.7%	0.4 – 1.3	0.9%	-0.2	2.4%	15.93	16	99.2%	66.6%	6.0%	0.2%
10	ARM Armenia	0.5%	1.7 – 2.1	1.9%	-1.4	1.7%	15.83	16	99.1%	63.4%	4.6%	0.1%
11	UKR Ukraine	0.1%	0.2 – 0.3	0.3%	-0.1	0.7%	15.53	16	98.0%	51.9%	2.3%	<0.1%
12	ESP Spain	0.1%	0.1 – 0.3	0.2%	-0.1	0.6%	15.49	16	97.6%	50.4%	2.0%	<0.1%
13	ENG England	0.1%	0.2 – 0.3	0.3%	-0.1	0.6%	15.51	16	97.9%	51.0%	1.7%	<0.1%
14	TUR Turkiye	0.1%	0.3 – 0.8	0.5%	-0.4	0.5%	15.44	15	97.5%	48.4%	1.6%	<0.1%
15	POL Poland	0.1%	0.1 – 0.2	0.1%	-0.1	0.3%	15.37	15	96.9%	46.1%	1.1%	<0.1%
16	SRB Serbia	0.1%	0.3 – 0.6	0.5%	-0.4	0.4%	15.42	15	97.2%	48.1%	1.4%	<0.1%
17	CRO Croatia	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.1%	15.04	15	93.6%	33.0%	0.4%	0.0%
18	CZE Czech Republic	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.1%	14.93	15	93.2%	28.7%	0.3%	<0.1%
19	IRI Iran	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	0.1%	14.97	15	93.0%	29.9%	0.3%	0.0%
20	GRE Greece	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.1%	14.96	15	93.2%	30.1%	0.4%	0.0%
21	ISR Israel	<0.1%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.66	15	90.3%	18.5%	0.1%	<0.1%
22	NOR Norway	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.79	15	92.0%	23.1%	0.2%	0.0%
23	ROU Romania	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.61	15	90.1%	16.2%	0.1%	0.0%
24	DEN Denmark	<0.1%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.53	15	89.3%	13.1%	0.1%	0.0%
25	ARG Argentina	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.59	15	90.0%	14.8%	0.1%	0.0%
26	ITA Italy	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.50	14	89.0%	11.8%	0.1%	0.0%
27	AUT Austria	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.49	14	88.6%	11.5%	0.1%	0.0%
28	BUL Bulgaria	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.41	14	86.5%	9.6%	<0.1%	0.0%
29	GEO Georgia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.34	14	83.8%	7.9%	<0.1%	0.0%
30	UZB Uzbekistan 2	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.30	14	82.6%	8.0%	<0.1%	0.0%
31	BRA Brazil	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	14.16	14	77.0%	5.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
32	AUS Australia	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.11	14	76.1%	5.7%	<0.1%	0.0%
33	SUI Switzerland	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.05	14	73.3%	5.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
34	SLO Slovenia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.00	14	71.1%	5.1%	<0.1%	0.0%
35	KAZ Kazakhstan	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.93	14	68.3%	4.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
36	SWE Sweden	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.87	14	65.9%	3.9%	<0.1%	0.0%
37	LTU Lithuania	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.79	14	61.1%	3.1%	0.0%	0.0%
38	SVK Slovakia	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	13.74	14	60.2%	2.8%	<0.1%	0.0%
39	BLR Belarus	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.72	14	59.8%	2.4%	0.0%	0.0%
40	MNE Montenegro	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.69	14	58.5%	2.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
41	CAN Canada	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	13.61	14	55.1%	1.8%	<0.1%	0.0%
42	FIN Finland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.55	14	50.6%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%
43	LAT Latvia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.52	14	51.5%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%
44	CUB Cuba	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.52	14	51.5%	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%
45	VIE Vietnam	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.47	14	50.2%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%
46	ISL Iceland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.46	14	50.1%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%
47	BEL Belgium	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.45	13	47.3%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%
48	MDA Moldova	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.45	13	47.0%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%
49	SGP Singapore	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.37	13	46.5%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%
50	POR Portugal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.35	13	42.8%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
51	MGL Mongolia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.32	13	44.4%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
52	INA Indonesia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.19	13	38.9%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
53	PER Peru	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.11	13	35.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
54	CHI Chile	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	12.98	13	29.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
55	UZB Uzbekistan 3	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.89	13	25.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
56	MKD North Macedonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.79	13	20.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
57	PHI Philippines	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.74	13	17.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
58	COL Colombia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.72	13	14.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
59	BIH Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.69	13	14.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
60	SCO Scotland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.65	13	12.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
61	TJK Tajikistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.64	13	11.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
62	EST Estonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.61	13	10.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
63	BAN Bangladesh	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.60	13	10.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
64	TKM Turkmenistan	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.59	13	9.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
65	URU Uruguay	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.58	13	9.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
66	IRL Ireland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.53	13	8.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
67	EGY Egypt	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.52	13	6.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
68	BOL Bolivia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.51	12	8.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
69	MAS Malaysia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.50	12	7.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
70	PAR Paraguay	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.47	12	7.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
71	NZL New Zealand	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.41	12	6.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
72	ALB Albania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.35	12	5.9%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
73	CRC Costa Rica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.32	12	5.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
74	KOR South Korea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.26	12	4.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
75	MEX Mexico	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.17	12	4.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
76	JPN Japan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.06	12	4.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
77	RSA South Africa	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.97	12	3.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
78	VEN Venezuela	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.88	12	2.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
79	KGZ Kyrgyzstan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.75	12	1.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
80	ALG Algeria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.71	12	1.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
81	CYP Cyprus	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.66	12	1.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
82	KOS Kosovo *	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.61	12	1.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
83	TPE Chinese Taipei	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.59	12	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
84	NGR Nigeria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.49	12	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
85	AND Andorra	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.48	11	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
86	ECU Ecuador	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.47	11	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
87	DOM Dominican Republic	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.46	11	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
88	ESA El Salvador	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.43	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
89	UAE United Arab Emirates	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.42	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
90	YEM Yemen	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.41	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
91	PAN Panama	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.41	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
92	ANG Angola	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.41	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
93	SYR Syria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.40	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
94	ZAM Zambia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.40	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
95	LBN Lebanon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.39	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
96	LUX Luxembourg	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.39	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
97	SRI Sri Lanka	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.38	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
98	GUA Guatemala	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.35	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
99	MAD Madagascar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.28	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
100	WLS Wales	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.23	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
101	TTO Trinidad & Tobago	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.13	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
102	SUD Sudan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.97	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
103	IRQ Iraq	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.83	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
104	THA Thailand	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.77	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
105	JAM Jamaica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.67	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
106	BAR Barbados	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.64	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
107	UGA Uganda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.62	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
108	FAI Faroe Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.60	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
109	HKG Hong Kong, China	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.60	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
110	LBA Libya	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.59	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
111	TUN Tunisia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.59	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
112	ZIM Zimbabwe	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.58	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
113	MAR Morocco	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.58	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
114	MNC Monaco	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.57	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
115	CPV Cape Verde	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.57	11	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
116	MLT Malta	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.57	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
117	JOR Jordan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.55	11	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
118	MOZ Mozambique	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.54	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
119	SSD South Sudan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.53	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
120	MAW Malawi	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.52	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
121	PUR Puerto Rico	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.52	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
122	HON Honduras	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.50	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
123	NCA Nicaragua	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.42	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
124	PAK Pakistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.40	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
125	NAM Namibia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.34	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
126	KEN Kenya	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.26	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
127	NEP Nepal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.17	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
128	MYA Myanmar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.10	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
129	PLE Palestine	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.99	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
130	LIE Liechtenstein	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.90	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
131	ETH Ethiopia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.81	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
132	AFG Afghanistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.76	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
133	BOT Botswana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.56	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
134	CIV Cote d’Ivoire	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.53	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
135	SEN Senegal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.39	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
136	GUY Guyana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.36	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
137	BDI Burundi	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.36	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
138	MTN Mauritania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.35	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
139	HAI Haiti	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.35	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
140	KSA Saudi Arabia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.27	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
141	PLW Palau	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.27	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
142	GUM Guam	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.27	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
143	CUR Curacao	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.25	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
144	BRN Bahrain	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.25	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
145	CMR Cameroon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.25	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
146	IOM Isle of Man	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.20	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
147	SUR Suriname	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.18	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
148	SOM Somalia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.16	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
149	STP Sao Tome and Principe	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.08	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
150	LES Lesotho	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.03	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
151	BRU Brunei Darussalam	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.93	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
152	MDV Maldives	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.89	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
153	KUW Kuwait	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.80	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
154	ARU Aruba	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.75	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
155	GHA Ghana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.66	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
156	MRI Mauritius	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.55	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
157	MLI Mali	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.53	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
158	LBR Liberia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.52	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
159	CAY Cayman Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.49	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
160	SMR San Marino	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.49	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
161	GAM Gambia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.48	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
162	OMA Oman	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.48	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
163	TOG Togo	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.47	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
164	JCI Jersey	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.47	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
165	ANT Antigua and Barbuda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.46	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
166	GEQ Equatorial Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.43	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
167	BAH Bahamas	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.41	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
168	TLS Timor-Leste	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.20	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
169	LCA Saint Lucia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.19	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
170	FIJ Fiji	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.16	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
171	QAT Qatar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.10	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
172	GCI Guernsey	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.01	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
173	SLE Sierra Leone	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.94	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
174	GAB Gabon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.90	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
175	COD Democratic Republic of the Congo	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.79	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
176	BER Bermuda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.79	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
177	SEY Seychelles	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.78	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
178	TAN Tanzania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.72	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
179	MAC Macau, China	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.70	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
180	COM Comoros Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.55	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
181	ISV US Virgin Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.49	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
182	NRU Nauru	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.45	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
183	SOL Solomon Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.37	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
184	BUR Burkina Faso	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.30	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
185	DJI Djibouti	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.20	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
186	SWZ Eswatini	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.18	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
187	NCL New Caledonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.99	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
188	BHU Bhutan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.94	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
189	CAF Central African Republic	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.93	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
190	CHA Chad	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.87	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
191	PNG Papua New Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.84	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
192	DMA Dominica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.78	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
193	VIN Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.63	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
194	VAN Vanuatu	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.48	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
195	BIZ Belize	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.43	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
196	CAM Cambodia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.40	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
197	IVB British Virgin Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.22	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
198	GRN Grenada	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.20	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
199	GRL Greenland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.11	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
200	NIG Niger	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.91	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
201	LAO Laos	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.51	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
202	GUI Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.36	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
203	KIR Kiribati	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.97	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
204	TGA Tonga	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.68	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
205	SKN Saint Kitts and Nevis	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.67	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
206	MHL Marshall Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.63	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

P(win) breaks ties at the top by Sonneborn-Berger then game points inside each trial (D13); "P(top on MP, shared)" counts every tied leader (Σ = 1.438). Market bid – ask in cents; mid = (bid + ask) / 2. Click a row to focus that team.

in-round loop: last tick 00:21:10 · round 6: 0/412 boards scored, 0 priced by chess_model, 412 from ratings · board probabilities missing · 73 P(win) updates in round 3, last 17:21:15 · Polymarket: websocket live, 40 legs

json · market json · latest single run

Olympiad Open 2026

Probability of winning — round 3, every update

All teams — every probability · Polymarket as of 09-19 11:00 (start of round 4)