olympiad_open_2026 — MP Monte Carlo

Pre-tournament After round 1After round 2After round 3 After round 4 After round 5 Now (round 6 paired)

Probability of winning — round 2, every update

15 min · 1 h · 3 h · round · tournament

probability · delta

model · market · both

IND IndiaUSA United States of AmericaUZB UzbekistanCHN China

GER GermanyAZE AzerbaijanNED Netherlands

All teams — every probability · Polymarket as of 09-18 11:00 (start of round 3)

#	Team	P(win)	Polymarket bid – ask	mid	model − mid	P(top on MP, shared)	E[MP]	median	14+ MP	16+ MP	18+ MP	20+ MP
1	IND India	32.0%	32.0 – 34.0	33.0%	-1.0	40.9%	18.03	18	100.0%	96.9%	60.7%	17.4%
2	USA United States of America	29.3%	10.0 – 12.0	11.0%	+18.3	37.6%	17.92	18	100.0%	96.7%	57.8%	15.5%
3	UZB Uzbekistan	20.7%	34.0 – 35.0	34.5%	-13.8	25.8%	17.43	17	100.0%	93.6%	44.1%	8.6%
4	CHN China	7.0%	10.0 – 12.0	11.0%	-4.0	11.9%	16.72	17	99.9%	85.5%	23.5%	2.4%
5	GER Germany	4.1%	8.9 – 9.6	9.3%	-5.1	7.3%	16.41	16	99.8%	79.6%	15.4%	1.0%
6	AZE Azerbaijan	2.6%	1.8 – 1.9	1.8%	+0.7	5.6%	16.32	16	99.8%	78.2%	12.8%	0.6%
7	NED Netherlands	1.9%	0.5 – 0.7	0.6%	+1.3	5.0%	16.23	16	99.7%	75.4%	11.3%	0.6%
8	HUN Hungary	0.7%	0.4 – 1.3	0.9%	-0.2	2.1%	15.94	16	99.3%	66.9%	5.8%	0.1%
9	FRA France	0.6%	0.9 – 1.6	1.3%	-0.7	1.7%	15.86	16	99.1%	64.3%	4.6%	0.1%
10	ARM Armenia	0.5%	1.7 – 2.1	1.9%	-1.4	1.6%	15.84	16	99.1%	63.6%	4.5%	0.1%
11	ESP Spain	0.2%	0.1 – 0.3	0.2%	-0.0	0.6%	15.49	16	97.8%	50.2%	1.8%	<0.1%
12	ENG England	0.1%	0.2 – 0.3	0.3%	-0.1	0.7%	15.55	16	98.0%	52.5%	2.2%	<0.1%
13	UKR Ukraine	0.1%	0.2 – 0.3	0.3%	-0.1	0.6%	15.53	16	98.0%	51.7%	2.0%	<0.1%
14	SRB Serbia	0.1%	0.3 – 0.6	0.5%	-0.4	0.4%	15.43	15	97.4%	48.0%	1.6%	<0.1%
15	POL Poland	0.1%	0.1 – 0.2	0.1%	-0.1	0.4%	15.38	15	97.0%	46.9%	1.2%	<0.1%
16	TUR Turkiye	0.1%	0.3 – 0.8	0.5%	-0.5	0.4%	15.44	15	97.5%	48.4%	1.6%	<0.1%
17	CRO Croatia	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.1%	15.07	15	94.0%	34.3%	0.5%	<0.1%
18	CZE Czech Republic	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.1%	14.93	15	93.2%	28.7%	0.4%	<0.1%
19	IRI Iran	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	0.1%	14.99	15	93.4%	31.6%	0.4%	0.0%
20	GRE Greece	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.1%	14.95	15	93.2%	29.9%	0.4%	0.0%
21	ROU Romania	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.61	15	89.8%	16.3%	0.1%	<0.1%
22	NOR Norway	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	0.1%	14.80	15	92.1%	23.6%	0.2%	0.0%
23	ISR Israel	<0.1%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.66	15	90.3%	18.6%	0.1%	0.0%
24	ARG Argentina	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.58	15	89.7%	14.9%	0.1%	0.0%
25	AUT Austria	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.49	14	88.4%	11.5%	0.1%	0.0%
26	DEN Denmark	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.52	15	89.0%	12.8%	0.1%	0.0%
27	ITA Italy	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.50	14	88.7%	11.9%	0.1%	0.0%
28	BUL Bulgaria	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.41	14	86.4%	9.7%	<0.1%	0.0%
29	GEO Georgia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.33	14	83.6%	7.8%	<0.1%	0.0%
30	UZB Uzbekistan 2	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	14.30	14	82.4%	8.0%	<0.1%	0.0%
31	BRA Brazil	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.18	14	77.6%	5.9%	<0.1%	0.0%
32	AUS Australia	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.12	14	75.8%	5.8%	<0.1%	0.0%
33	SUI Switzerland	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.06	14	73.5%	5.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
34	SLO Slovenia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	14.00	14	70.7%	4.8%	<0.1%	0.0%
35	KAZ Kazakhstan	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.93	14	67.8%	4.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
36	SWE Sweden	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.87	14	65.0%	3.9%	<0.1%	0.0%
37	LTU Lithuania	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.81	14	62.9%	3.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
38	SVK Slovakia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.74	14	59.8%	2.9%	<0.1%	0.0%
39	BLR Belarus	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.71	14	59.1%	2.6%	<0.1%	0.0%
40	MNE Montenegro	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.68	14	57.9%	2.2%	0.0%	0.0%
41	CAN Canada	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.61	14	54.9%	1.7%	<0.1%	0.0%
42	FIN Finland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.55	14	51.3%	1.2%	0.0%	0.0%
43	LAT Latvia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.52	14	51.3%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%
44	CUB Cuba	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.52	14	51.1%	1.0%	<0.1%	0.0%
45	MDA Moldova	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.47	13	49.1%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%
46	VIE Vietnam	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.47	13	49.3%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%
47	BEL Belgium	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.46	13	49.0%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%
48	ISL Iceland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.46	13	49.4%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%
49	POR Portugal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.39	13	46.9%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
50	SGP Singapore	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.36	13	45.9%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
51	MGL Mongolia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.32	13	44.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
52	INA Indonesia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.18	13	38.2%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
53	PER Peru	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.12	13	35.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
54	CHI Chile	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.98	13	29.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
55	UZB Uzbekistan 3	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.90	13	25.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
56	MKD North Macedonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.80	13	20.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
57	PHI Philippines	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.76	13	18.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
58	COL Colombia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.72	13	15.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
59	BIH Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.70	13	14.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
60	SCO Scotland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.66	13	12.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
61	TJK Tajikistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.65	13	11.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
62	BAN Bangladesh	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.61	13	10.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
63	EST Estonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.60	13	10.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
64	TKM Turkmenistan	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.60	13	9.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
65	URU Uruguay	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.58	13	9.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
66	IRL Ireland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.54	13	8.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
67	BOL Bolivia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.51	12	8.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
68	MAS Malaysia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.50	12	7.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
69	EGY Egypt	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.49	12	7.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
70	PAR Paraguay	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.48	12	7.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
71	NZL New Zealand	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.42	12	6.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
72	ALB Albania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.36	12	5.8%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
73	CRC Costa Rica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.32	12	5.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
74	KOR South Korea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.26	12	5.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
75	MEX Mexico	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.17	12	4.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
76	JPN Japan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.06	12	3.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
77	RSA South Africa	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.98	12	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
78	VEN Venezuela	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.90	12	2.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
79	KGZ Kyrgyzstan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.77	12	1.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
80	ALG Algeria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.72	12	1.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
81	CYP Cyprus	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.66	12	1.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
82	KOS Kosovo *	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.62	12	1.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
83	TPE Chinese Taipei	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.59	12	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
84	NGR Nigeria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.50	12	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
85	ECU Ecuador	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.48	11	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
86	AND Andorra	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.48	11	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
87	DOM Dominican Republic	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.46	11	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
88	UAE United Arab Emirates	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.42	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
89	ESA El Salvador	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.42	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
90	PAN Panama	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.42	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
91	ANG Angola	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.41	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
92	YEM Yemen	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.40	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
93	ZAM Zambia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.40	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
94	SYR Syria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.40	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
95	LUX Luxembourg	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.39	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
96	LBN Lebanon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.39	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
97	SRI Sri Lanka	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.38	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
98	GUA Guatemala	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.34	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
99	MAD Madagascar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.28	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
100	WLS Wales	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.24	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
101	TTO Trinidad & Tobago	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.15	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
102	SUD Sudan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.00	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
103	IRQ Iraq	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.87	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
104	THA Thailand	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.76	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
105	JAM Jamaica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.68	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
106	UGA Uganda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.64	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
107	FAI Faroe Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.61	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
108	BAR Barbados	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.61	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
109	LBA Libya	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.60	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
110	HKG Hong Kong, China	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.60	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
111	TUN Tunisia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.60	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
112	MAR Morocco	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.58	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
113	MLT Malta	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.58	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
114	ZIM Zimbabwe	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.58	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
115	MNC Monaco	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.57	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
116	JOR Jordan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.56	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
117	MOZ Mozambique	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.54	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
118	CPV Cape Verde	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.54	11	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
119	SSD South Sudan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.54	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
120	MAW Malawi	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.52	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
121	PUR Puerto Rico	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.52	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
122	HON Honduras	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.51	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
123	NCA Nicaragua	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.43	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
124	PAK Pakistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.38	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
125	NAM Namibia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.34	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
126	KEN Kenya	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.27	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
127	NEP Nepal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.17	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
128	MYA Myanmar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.12	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
129	PLE Palestine	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.01	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
130	LIE Liechtenstein	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.91	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
131	ETH Ethiopia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.82	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
132	AFG Afghanistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.77	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
133	BOT Botswana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.58	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
134	CIV Cote d’Ivoire	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.53	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
135	SEN Senegal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.41	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
136	GUY Guyana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.37	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
137	BDI Burundi	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.37	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
138	MTN Mauritania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.36	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
139	HAI Haiti	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.36	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
140	PLW Palau	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.28	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
141	KSA Saudi Arabia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.27	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
142	GUM Guam	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.26	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
143	CUR Curacao	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.26	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
144	CMR Cameroon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.26	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
145	BRN Bahrain	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.25	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
146	IOM Isle of Man	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.20	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
147	SUR Suriname	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.18	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
148	SOM Somalia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.16	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
149	STP Sao Tome and Principe	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.07	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
150	LES Lesotho	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.04	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
151	BRU Brunei Darussalam	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.94	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
152	MDV Maldives	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.90	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
153	KUW Kuwait	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.81	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
154	ARU Aruba	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.75	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
155	GHA Ghana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.64	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
156	MRI Mauritius	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.56	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
157	MLI Mali	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.55	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
158	LBR Liberia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.53	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
159	GAM Gambia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.50	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
160	CAY Cayman Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.49	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
161	OMA Oman	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.48	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
162	SMR San Marino	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.48	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
163	TOG Togo	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.47	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
164	JCI Jersey	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.47	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
165	ANT Antigua and Barbuda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.46	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
166	GEQ Equatorial Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.42	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
167	BAH Bahamas	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.41	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
168	LCA Saint Lucia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.20	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
169	TLS Timor-Leste	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.19	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
170	FIJ Fiji	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.17	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
171	QAT Qatar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.09	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
172	GCI Guernsey	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.00	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
173	SLE Sierra Leone	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.94	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
174	GAB Gabon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.90	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
175	COD Democratic Republic of the Congo	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.82	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
176	BER Bermuda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.80	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
177	SEY Seychelles	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.79	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
178	TAN Tanzania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.71	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
179	MAC Macau, China	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.67	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
180	COM Comoros Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.56	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
181	ISV US Virgin Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.52	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
182	NRU Nauru	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.43	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
183	SOL Solomon Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.38	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
184	BUR Burkina Faso	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.33	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
185	DJI Djibouti	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.21	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
186	SWZ Eswatini	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.16	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
187	NCL New Caledonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.02	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
188	CHA Chad	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.95	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
189	CAF Central African Republic	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.93	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
190	BHU Bhutan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.91	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
191	PNG Papua New Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.85	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
192	DMA Dominica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.71	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
193	VIN Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.69	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
194	VAN Vanuatu	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.54	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
195	BIZ Belize	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.45	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
196	CAM Cambodia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.41	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
197	IVB British Virgin Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.26	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
198	GRN Grenada	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.26	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
199	GRL Greenland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.03	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
200	NIG Niger	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.99	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
201	GUI Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.43	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
202	LAO Laos	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.35	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
203	SKN Saint Kitts and Nevis	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.79	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
204	TGA Tonga	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.78	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
205	MHL Marshall Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.74	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
206	KIR Kiribati	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.72	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

P(win) breaks ties at the top by Sonneborn-Berger then game points inside each trial (D13); "P(top on MP, shared)" counts every tied leader (Σ = 1.434). Market bid – ask in cents; mid = (bid + ask) / 2. Click a row to focus that team.

in-round loop: last tick 00:29:14 · round 6: 0/412 boards scored, 0 priced by chess_model, 412 from ratings · board probabilities missing · 67 P(win) updates in round 2, last 17:41:20 · Polymarket: websocket live, 40 legs

json · market json · latest single run

Olympiad Open 2026

Probability of winning — round 2, every update

All teams — every probability · Polymarket as of 09-18 11:00 (start of round 3)