{
 "model_version": "mp_monte_carlo/0.2.2",
 "snapshot_hash": "932b7b5f136c1950cf59c8bb721f5b9db45c97f4375fd84783292fd5dac75b26",
 "snapshot_time": "2026-09-20T17:16:51.482Z",
 "master_seed": 20260917,
 "trials": 50000,
 "run": {
  "model_version": "mp_monte_carlo/0.2.2",
  "snapshot_hash": "932b7b5f136c1950cf59c8bb721f5b9db45c97f4375fd84783292fd5dac75b26",
  "snapshot_time": "2026-09-20T17:16:51.482Z",
  "snapshot_path": "chess_model_tournament/data/runs/timeline/snapshot_r2.json",
  "config": {
   "_comment": "Spec §4.1 defaults. Every run stamps the RESOLVED config (this + event + CLI overrides) into simulation_summary.json. Changing a calibration value here is a decision (ai/decisions.md) with evidence, never a silent edit.",
   "model_version": "mp_monte_carlo/0.2.2",
   "boards_per_match": 4,
   "match_points": {
    "win": 2,
    "draw": 1,
    "loss": 0
   },
   "ranking_mode": "MP_ONLY",
   "tie_policy": "SHARED_MAX_MP",
   "win_split_policy": "EQUAL_SPLIT",
   "_win_split_comment": "D4: p_win_equal_split = 1/k among k tied leaders, reported beside p_highest_mp. Future: TB_PROXY (spec v1.1).",
   "board_model": {
    "kind": "rating_davidson_softmax",
    "_kind_comment": "D5 (operator 2026-09-17): the board W/D/B comes from an Elo formula — chess_model's pre-game Davidson-softmax form, refit here on the whole human field (1400-2900) with a draw-vs-gap term; artifact below. 'spec_v1_closed_form' (the spec's d0/kappa/H construction) is kept as the alternative and is what the spec text describes.",
    "artifact": "config/board_model_olympiad_v0.2.json",
    "_artifact_comment": "D16 (2026-09-18): fitted on 17,331 Olympiad boards 2014-2024 (tools/fit_board_model_olympiad.py) with a level-by-gap term; beats the relay-corpus fit v0.1 (config/board_model_davidson_v0.1.json, kept) on every held-out Olympiad by 0.010-0.023 nats. v0.1 under-rated an elite favourite by up to 8 points of expected score.",
    "white_advantage_elo": 35,
    "equal_rating_draw_rate": 0.5,
    "draw_decay_elo": 400,
    "_spec_params_comment": "white_advantage_elo / equal_rating_draw_rate / draw_decay_elo are used ONLY by kind=spec_v1_closed_form. Under rating_davidson_softmax the White advantage is the artifact's fitted intercept (~45 Elo).",
    "probability_sum_tolerance": 1e-9,
    "unrated_rating_floor": 1400,
    "_unrated_comment": "D8: Chess-Results prints unrated as Rtg 0; 16 of 205 teams have <4 rated players. Simulated at FIDE's own floor (1400), flagged unrated:true; the snapshot keeps rating:null."
   },
   "team_elo_adjustments": {
    "USA": 6,
    "IND": 25.8,
    "UZB": 19.5,
    "CHN": 0,
    "GER": 11.9,
    "NED": 0,
    "AZE": 11.9,
    "HUN": 0,
    "FRA": 7.9,
    "ARM": 7.6
   },
   "team_elo_adjustments_max_starting_rank": 10,
   "_team_elo_comment": "D35 (operator, 2026-09-20), REPLACING D17's rating-change buckets. Elo added to every player of the team = the mean AGE SHIFT of its strongest four, where the shift is fitted on RESULTS (not on rating change): four age bins relative to 27+, <=20 +31.7, 21-23 +23.8, 24-26 +15.2, 27+ 0, measured with the board model held fixed on 5,939 elite relay games (both players 2600+, 2023-2026, 226 players, 51 federations, population-complete). D17's rating-change rates were selection-inflated (they vanish above 2650) and its 24-30 bucket understated the 24-26 group about fourfold; the one-year lag it assumed IS confirmed by the results fit (1.07 years, CI 0.54-1.64). Evidence and every caveat: docs/rating_lag_review_2026-09-20.md. Applied to seeds 1-10 ONLY, enforced by team_elo_adjustments_max_starting_rank (a federation key alone used to reach Uzbekistan 2 and 3); a team_id key overrides a federation key. Every other team is 0. UZB +30 stays NOT adopted (D15). What-ifs: config/scenarios.json. The backtest applies this only via tools/backtest.mjs --adjustments. Recompute: ages from tools/rating_trajectory.mjs; the bins from data/runs/review_20260920/scripts/.",
   "run_modes": {
    "interactive": 100000,
    "final": 1000000,
    "test": 10000
   },
   "thresholds_mp": [
    14,
    16,
    18,
    20
   ],
   "trajectory_quantiles": [
    0.1,
    0.5,
    0.9
   ],
   "pairing": {
    "bye_enabled": false,
    "bye_mp": 1,
    "bye_game_points": 2,
    "_bye_comment": "FIDE Olympiad Pairing Rules art. 4.3: a bye is 1 matchpoint and 2 gamepoints — NOT the spec's 2 MP (§8.4). Used when crediting a real bye in the snapshot (Kiribati, round 3); the simulator never awards one under D6. Verify against the round-4 'MP before' column.",
    "merge_adjacent_groups_only_when_no_legal_matching": true,
    "pairing_order": "top_down",
    "_order_comment": "Olympiad rules 6.4 pair top groups down to the middle, then bottom groups up, then the middle; the spec (§8.2) pairs top-down only. Implemented as the spec says; TASK-9 measures the divergence."
   }
  },
  "config_hash": "7ec2a044183a19765a91c828d3d2822087035f0542afcb533dad75542edd3d70",
  "artifact": "chess_model_tournament/config/board_model_olympiad_v0.2.json",
  "artifact_sha256": "1f24c5aa9d6e69497a66d333b9f72fbb7117776e0bc924e1633879d45c876074",
  "master_seed": 20260917,
  "trials": 50000,
  "workers": 4,
  "started_at": "2026-09-20T17:16:51.630Z",
  "elapsed_s": 75.522
 },
 "tournament": {
  "tournament_id": "olympiad_open_2026",
  "rounds_total": 11,
  "boards_per_match": 4,
  "team_count": 206,
  "active_teams": [
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  ],
  "excluded_teams": []
 },
 "excluded_teams": [],
 "sums": {
  "p_highest_mp": 1.4335600000000002,
  "p_win_equal_split": 1.0000000000000004,
  "p_win": 1.0000000000000002
 },
 "p_win_method": "TB_PROXY (Sonneborn-Berger on the trial, then game points, then shared)",
 "as_of": {
  "last_completed_round": 2,
  "current_round": null
 },
 "note_highest_mp": "p_highest_mp counts every team sharing the maximum MP; tied leaders are counted independently, so the column can sum to more than 1. p_win_equal_split splits a k-way tie 1/k (D4) and sums to 1.",
 "teams": [
  {
   "team_id": 1,
   "team_name": "United States of America",
   "federation": "USA",
   "starting_rank": 1,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 17.918339999999997,
   "median_final_mp": 18,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "13": 0.00002,
    "14": 0.00212,
    "15": 0.03126,
    "16": 0.13968,
    "17": 0.2486,
    "18": 0.24568,
    "19": 0.17786,
    "20": 0.1039,
    "21": 0.04052,
    "22": 0.01036
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.37586,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.21944,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.2847111031746032,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.29254,
   "p_win": 0.29254,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.99998,
    "16": 0.9666,
    "18": 0.57832,
    "20": 0.15478
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 2,
   "team_name": "India",
   "federation": "IND",
   "starting_rank": 2,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 18.0254,
   "median_final_mp": 18,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "13": 0.00002,
    "14": 0.0015,
    "15": 0.0296,
    "16": 0.12632,
    "17": 0.23544,
    "18": 0.24602,
    "19": 0.1874,
    "20": 0.1135,
    "21": 0.04682,
    "22": 0.01338
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.4095,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.24582,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.31381341269841273,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.32031,
   "p_win": 0.32031,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.99998,
    "16": 0.96888,
    "18": 0.60712,
    "20": 0.1737
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 3,
   "team_name": "Uzbekistan",
   "federation": "UZB",
   "starting_rank": 3,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 17.430480000000003,
   "median_final_mp": 17,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "13": 0.00018,
    "14": 0.00494,
    "15": 0.05902,
    "16": 0.20512,
    "17": 0.28992,
    "18": 0.22752,
    "19": 0.12692,
    "20": 0.0618,
    "21": 0.02048,
    "22": 0.0041
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.25774,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.1325,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.18344050793650796,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.20668,
   "p_win": 0.20668,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.99982,
    "16": 0.93586,
    "18": 0.44082,
    "20": 0.08638
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 4,
   "team_name": "China",
   "federation": "CHN",
   "starting_rank": 4,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 16.718560000000004,
   "median_final_mp": 17,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "13": 0.0007,
    "14": 0.0161,
    "15": 0.12864,
    "16": 0.31722,
    "17": 0.30238,
    "18": 0.15532,
    "19": 0.05558,
    "20": 0.01928,
    "21": 0.00406,
    "22": 0.00072
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.1193,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.04592,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.07430577777777778,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.06954,
   "p_win": 0.06954,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.9993,
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    "20": 0.02406
   }
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  {
   "team_id": 5,
   "team_name": "Germany",
   "federation": "GER",
   "starting_rank": 5,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 16.411320000000003,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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   "p_win_equal_split": 0.04284236507936507,
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   "p_mp_at_least": {
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   }
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  {
   "team_id": 6,
   "team_name": "Netherlands",
   "federation": "NED",
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   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 16.229519999999997,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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    "21": 0.0006,
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   "p_highest_mp": 0.04996,
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   "p_win_equal_split": 0.026911920634920636,
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   "p_win": 0.01904,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
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  {
   "team_id": 7,
   "team_name": "Azerbaijan",
   "federation": "AZE",
   "starting_rank": 7,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 16.31934,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "12": 0.00004,
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    "14": 0.03278,
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   "p_win_equal_split": 0.031446079365079364,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.02552,
   "p_win": 0.02552,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
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    "20": 0.00638
   }
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  {
   "team_id": 8,
   "team_name": "Hungary",
   "federation": "HUN",
   "starting_rank": 8,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.935439999999998,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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    "14": 0.0668,
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    "16": 0.3891,
    "17": 0.2219,
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    "21": 0.0001,
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   "p_highest_mp": 0.02132,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.00484,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.010799666666666664,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.00655,
   "p_win": 0.00655,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.99268,
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    "18": 0.05794,
    "20": 0.00146
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 9,
   "team_name": "France",
   "federation": "FRA",
   "starting_rank": 9,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.858139999999999,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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    "14": 0.0768,
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    "17": 0.20962,
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   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.0058,
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   "p_mp_at_least": {
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  {
   "team_id": 10,
   "team_name": "Armenia",
   "federation": "ARM",
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   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.83786,
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   "final_mp_pmf": {
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  {
   "team_id": 11,
   "team_name": "England",
   "federation": "ENG",
   "starting_rank": 11,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.549079999999998,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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   "p_win": 0.00146,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.97998,
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   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 12,
   "team_name": "Ukraine",
   "federation": "UKR",
   "starting_rank": 12,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.52978,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "12": 0.00082,
    "13": 0.01924,
    "14": 0.11938,
    "15": 0.3438,
    "16": 0.3654,
    "17": 0.1309,
    "18": 0.01914,
    "19": 0.00114,
    "20": 0.00016,
    "21": 0.00002
   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.0062,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.0007,
   "p_win_equal_split": 0.0026093809523809516,
   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.00128,
   "p_win": 0.00128,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.97994,
    "16": 0.51676,
    "18": 0.02046,
    "20": 0.00018
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 13,
   "team_name": "Spain",
   "federation": "ESP",
   "starting_rank": 13,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.49042,
   "median_final_mp": 16,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "12": 0.00106,
    "13": 0.0213,
    "14": 0.12558,
    "15": 0.35002,
    "16": 0.36268,
    "17": 0.12092,
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   },
   "p_highest_mp": 0.00596,
   "p_unique_highest_mp": 0.001,
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   "p_win_tb_proxy": 0.0016,
   "p_win": 0.0016,
   "p_mp_at_least": {
    "14": 0.97764,
    "16": 0.50204,
    "18": 0.01844,
    "20": 0.00022
   }
  },
  {
   "team_id": 14,
   "team_name": "Turkiye",
   "federation": "TUR",
   "starting_rank": 14,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 15.43894,
   "median_final_mp": 15,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
    "12": 0.00096,
    "13": 0.02426,
    "14": 0.13264,
    "15": 0.35816,
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  },
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   "team_id": 199,
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   "federation": "NIG",
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   "final_mp_pmf": {
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    "2": 0.00382,
    "3": 0.01564,
    "4": 0.07564,
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 200,
   "team_name": "Greenland",
   "federation": "GRL",
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   "expected_final_mp": 6.034200000000001,
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    "2": 0.00374,
    "3": 0.01502,
    "4": 0.07108,
    "5": 0.22474,
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 201,
   "team_name": "Guinea",
   "federation": "GUI",
   "starting_rank": 201,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 5.43204,
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    "4": 0.143,
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    "10": 0.0002
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    "20": 0
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 202,
   "team_name": "Laos",
   "federation": "LAO",
   "starting_rank": 202,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 5.352519999999999,
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   "final_mp_pmf": {
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    "2": 0.01914,
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    "5": 0.2888,
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    "20": 0
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 203,
   "team_name": "Saint Kitts and Nevis",
   "federation": "SKN",
   "starting_rank": 203,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 4.7894,
   "median_final_mp": 5,
   "final_mp_pmf": {
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    "1": 0.01534,
    "2": 0.04952,
    "3": 0.10872,
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 204,
   "team_name": "Tonga",
   "federation": "TGA",
   "starting_rank": 204,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 4.78076,
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 205,
   "team_name": "Kiribati",
   "federation": "KIR",
   "starting_rank": 205,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 4.71766,
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    "2": 0.0535,
    "3": 0.1207,
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  },
  {
   "team_id": 206,
   "team_name": "Marshall Islands",
   "federation": "MHL",
   "starting_rank": 206,
   "active": true,
   "expected_final_mp": 4.7403,
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    "3": 0.11356,
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    "20": 0
   }
  }
 ]
}