olympiad_open_2026 — MP Monte Carlo

Pre-tournamentAfter round 1After round 2 After round 3 After round 4 After round 5 Now (round 6 paired)

Probability of winning — round 1, every update

15 min · 1 h · 3 h · round · tournament

probability · delta

model · market · both

IND IndiaUSA United States of AmericaUZB UzbekistanCHN China

GER GermanyAZE AzerbaijanNED Netherlands

All teams — every probability · Polymarket as of 09-17 11:00 (start of round 2)

#	Team	P(win)	Polymarket bid – ask	mid	model − mid	P(top on MP, shared)	E[MP]	median	14+ MP	16+ MP	18+ MP	20+ MP
1	IND India	33.4%	32.0 – 34.0	33.0%	+0.4	40.8%	18.01	18	100.0%	97.0%	60.4%	16.8%
2	USA United States of America	30.4%	10.0 – 12.0	11.0%	+19.4	37.6%	17.89	18	100.0%	96.6%	57.3%	14.9%
3	UZB Uzbekistan	18.8%	34.0 – 35.0	34.5%	-15.7	25.9%	17.43	17	100.0%	93.7%	43.8%	8.2%
4	CHN China	6.9%	10.0 – 12.0	11.0%	-4.1	11.6%	16.70	17	99.9%	85.1%	22.9%	2.2%
5	GER Germany	3.6%	8.9 – 9.6	9.3%	-5.6	7.3%	16.40	16	99.8%	79.5%	15.0%	0.9%
6	AZE Azerbaijan	2.3%	1.8 – 1.9	1.8%	+0.5	5.5%	16.32	16	99.8%	78.2%	12.7%	0.6%
7	NED Netherlands	2.0%	0.5 – 0.7	0.6%	+1.4	5.0%	16.22	16	99.7%	75.3%	11.0%	0.5%
8	HUN Hungary	0.7%	0.4 – 1.3	0.9%	-0.1	2.3%	15.93	16	99.2%	66.6%	5.8%	0.2%
9	FRA France	0.6%	0.9 – 1.6	1.3%	-0.7	1.9%	15.85	16	99.1%	63.6%	4.8%	0.1%
10	ARM Armenia	0.5%	1.7 – 2.1	1.9%	-1.4	1.7%	15.83	16	99.0%	63.5%	4.4%	0.1%
11	ENG England	0.2%	0.2 – 0.3	0.3%	-0.1	0.7%	15.54	16	98.0%	52.2%	2.1%	<0.1%
12	UKR Ukraine	0.1%	0.2 – 0.3	0.3%	-0.1	0.8%	15.53	16	97.9%	51.8%	2.2%	<0.1%
13	ESP Spain	0.1%	0.1 – 0.3	0.2%	-0.1	0.6%	15.49	16	97.8%	50.5%	1.8%	<0.1%
14	SRB Serbia	0.1%	0.3 – 0.6	0.5%	-0.4	0.4%	15.41	15	97.2%	47.4%	1.4%	<0.1%
15	TUR Turkiye	0.1%	0.3 – 0.8	0.5%	-0.5	0.4%	15.43	15	97.4%	48.0%	1.5%	<0.1%
16	POL Poland	0.1%	0.1 – 0.2	0.1%	-0.1	0.4%	15.38	15	97.0%	46.4%	1.3%	<0.1%
17	CRO Croatia	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.1%	15.05	15	93.8%	33.8%	0.4%	<0.1%
18	CZE Czech Republic	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.1%	14.91	15	93.2%	27.7%	0.3%	0.0%
19	NOR Norway	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.1%	14.80	15	92.0%	23.3%	0.3%	0.0%
20	IRI Iran	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	0.1%	14.99	15	93.4%	31.4%	0.4%	<0.1%
21	GRE Greece	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.1%	14.95	15	93.1%	29.7%	0.3%	<0.1%
22	ISR Israel	<0.1%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.65	15	90.1%	17.8%	0.1%	0.0%
23	ROU Romania	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.60	15	89.8%	15.5%	0.1%	<0.1%
24	ARG Argentina	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.57	15	89.7%	14.4%	0.1%	0.0%
25	AUT Austria	<0.1%	—	0.1%	-0.0	<0.1%	14.49	14	88.5%	11.4%	0.1%	0.0%
26	DEN Denmark	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.54	15	89.3%	13.3%	0.1%	0.0%
27	ITA Italy	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.50	14	88.7%	11.6%	0.1%	0.0%
28	BUL Bulgaria	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.41	14	86.7%	9.6%	0.1%	0.0%
29	GEO Georgia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.34	14	84.2%	8.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
30	UZB Uzbekistan 2	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.30	14	82.5%	7.8%	<0.1%	0.0%
31	BRA Brazil	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	14.18	14	77.7%	5.9%	<0.1%	0.0%
32	AUS Australia	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.13	14	76.2%	5.6%	<0.1%	0.0%
33	SUI Switzerland	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	14.06	14	73.4%	5.0%	<0.1%	0.0%
34	SLO Slovenia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	<0.1%	14.00	14	70.8%	4.7%	<0.1%	0.0%
35	KAZ Kazakhstan	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.93	14	67.9%	4.3%	<0.1%	0.0%
36	SWE Sweden	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.87	14	65.4%	3.9%	0.0%	0.0%
37	LTU Lithuania	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.79	14	62.1%	3.2%	<0.1%	0.0%
38	SVK Slovakia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.74	14	60.0%	2.8%	<0.1%	0.0%
39	BLR Belarus	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.71	14	58.7%	2.5%	<0.1%	0.0%
40	MNE Montenegro	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.69	14	58.2%	2.3%	0.0%	0.0%
41	CAN Canada	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.60	14	54.4%	1.6%	0.0%	0.0%
42	FIN Finland	0.0%	—	—	—	<0.1%	13.57	14	53.2%	1.4%	<0.1%	0.0%
43	LAT Latvia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.52	14	51.3%	1.0%	<0.1%	0.0%
44	CUB Cuba	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.51	14	50.8%	1.1%	0.0%	0.0%
45	VIE Vietnam	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.47	13	49.7%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%
46	BEL Belgium	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.46	13	48.9%	0.8%	<0.1%	0.0%
47	MDA Moldova	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	13.46	13	48.7%	0.8%	<0.1%	0.0%
48	ISL Iceland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.45	13	49.2%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%
49	POR Portugal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.39	13	46.4%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%
50	SGP Singapore	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.35	13	44.9%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
51	MGL Mongolia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.32	13	43.9%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
52	INA Indonesia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.19	13	38.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
53	PER Peru	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	13.11	13	34.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
54	CHI Chile	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.98	13	29.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
55	UZB Uzbekistan 3	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.91	13	25.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
56	MKD North Macedonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.80	13	20.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
57	PHI Philippines	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.75	13	17.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
58	COL Colombia	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.72	13	15.8%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
59	BIH Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.70	13	14.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
60	SCO Scotland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.65	13	12.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
61	TJK Tajikistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.65	13	11.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
62	BAN Bangladesh	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.60	13	10.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
63	EST Estonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.60	13	10.0%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
64	TKM Turkmenistan	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.59	13	9.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
65	URU Uruguay	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.58	13	9.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
66	IRL Ireland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.55	13	8.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
67	BOL Bolivia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.52	13	7.9%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
68	EGY Egypt	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.50	12	7.7%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
69	MAS Malaysia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.50	12	7.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
70	PAR Paraguay	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.49	12	7.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
71	NZL New Zealand	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.43	12	6.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
72	ALB Albania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.36	12	5.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
73	CRC Costa Rica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.33	12	5.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
74	KOR South Korea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.28	12	5.3%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
75	MEX Mexico	0.0%	—	0.1%	-0.1	0.0%	12.19	12	4.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
76	JPN Japan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.08	12	3.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
77	RSA South Africa	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	12.00	12	3.4%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
78	VEN Venezuela	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.91	12	2.9%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
79	KGZ Kyrgyzstan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.80	12	2.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
80	ALG Algeria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.73	12	1.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
81	CYP Cyprus	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.67	12	1.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
82	KOS Kosovo *	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.62	12	1.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
83	TPE Chinese Taipei	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.60	12	1.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
84	NGR Nigeria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.50	12	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
85	AND Andorra	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.48	11	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
86	ECU Ecuador	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.47	11	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
87	DOM Dominican Republic	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.46	11	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
88	LBN Lebanon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.43	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
89	UAE United Arab Emirates	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.43	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
90	ESA El Salvador	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.42	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
91	PAN Panama	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.42	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
92	ANG Angola	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.41	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
93	SYR Syria	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.40	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
94	YEM Yemen	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.40	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
95	LUX Luxembourg	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.40	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
96	ZAM Zambia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.40	11	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
97	SRI Sri Lanka	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.38	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
98	GUA Guatemala	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.36	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
99	MAD Madagascar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.29	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
100	WLS Wales	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.25	11	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
101	TTO Trinidad & Tobago	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.16	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
102	SUD Sudan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	11.01	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
103	IRQ Iraq	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.88	11	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
104	THA Thailand	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.78	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
105	JAM Jamaica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.70	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
106	UGA Uganda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.65	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
107	FAI Faroe Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.62	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
108	HKG Hong Kong, China	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.62	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
109	BAR Barbados	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.61	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
110	TUN Tunisia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.60	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
111	MAR Morocco	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.59	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
112	LBA Libya	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.59	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
113	ZIM Zimbabwe	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.59	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
114	MLT Malta	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.58	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
115	MNC Monaco	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.57	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
116	JOR Jordan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.55	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
117	CPV Cape Verde	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.55	11	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
118	MOZ Mozambique	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.54	11	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
119	SSD South Sudan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.54	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
120	MAW Malawi	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.53	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
121	PUR Puerto Rico	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.52	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
122	HON Honduras	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.51	11	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
123	NCA Nicaragua	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.44	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
124	PAK Pakistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.39	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
125	NAM Namibia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.36	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
126	KEN Kenya	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.30	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
127	NEP Nepal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.20	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
128	MYA Myanmar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.13	10	<0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
129	PLE Palestine	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	10.04	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
130	LIE Liechtenstein	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.94	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
131	ETH Ethiopia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.85	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
132	AFG Afghanistan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.79	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
133	BOT Botswana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.61	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
134	CIV Cote d’Ivoire	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.55	10	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
135	SEN Senegal	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.42	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
136	BDI Burundi	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.37	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
137	GUY Guyana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.37	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
138	MTN Mauritania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.37	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
139	HAI Haiti	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.36	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
140	PLW Palau	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.28	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
141	KSA Saudi Arabia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.27	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
142	GUM Guam	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.27	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
143	CUR Curacao	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.26	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
144	BRN Bahrain	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.26	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
145	CMR Cameroon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.26	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
146	IOM Isle of Man	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.22	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
147	SUR Suriname	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.19	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
148	SOM Somalia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.18	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
149	STP Sao Tome and Principe	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.09	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
150	LES Lesotho	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	9.07	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
151	BRU Brunei Darussalam	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.96	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
152	MDV Maldives	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.92	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
153	KUW Kuwait	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.85	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
154	ARU Aruba	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.79	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
155	GHA Ghana	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.67	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
156	MRI Mauritius	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.57	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
157	MLI Mali	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.57	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
158	LBR Liberia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.55	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
159	CAY Cayman Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.51	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
160	GAM Gambia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.51	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
161	TOG Togo	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.49	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
162	OMA Oman	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.49	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
163	ANT Antigua and Barbuda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.49	9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
164	JCI Jersey	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.48	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
165	SMR San Marino	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.48	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
166	GEQ Equatorial Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.44	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
167	BAH Bahamas	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.42	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
168	LCA Saint Lucia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.22	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
169	TLS Timor-Leste	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.22	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
170	FIJ Fiji	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.19	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
171	QAT Qatar	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.11	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
172	GCI Guernsey	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	8.04	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
173	SLE Sierra Leone	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.98	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
174	GAB Gabon	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.92	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
175	COD Democratic Republic of the Congo	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.82	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
176	BER Bermuda	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.82	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
177	SEY Seychelles	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.81	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
178	TAN Tanzania	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.72	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
179	MAC Macau, China	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.71	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
180	COM Comoros Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.59	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
181	ISV US Virgin Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.54	8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
182	NRU Nauru	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.45	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
183	SOL Solomon Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.41	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
184	BUR Burkina Faso	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.34	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
185	DJI Djibouti	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.24	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
186	SWZ Eswatini	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.19	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
187	NCL New Caledonia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	7.06	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
188	CAF Central African Republic	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.98	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
189	CHA Chad	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.98	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
190	BHU Bhutan	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.95	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
191	PNG Papua New Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.81	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
192	DMA Dominica	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.76	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
193	VIN Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.74	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
194	VAN Vanuatu	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.58	7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
195	BIZ Belize	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.42	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
196	CAM Cambodia	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.32	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
197	IVB British Virgin Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.31	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
198	GRN Grenada	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.28	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
199	GRL Greenland	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.08	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
200	NIG Niger	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	6.02	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
201	GUI Guinea	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.48	6	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
202	LAO Laos	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	5.41	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
203	SKN Saint Kitts and Nevis	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.84	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
204	TGA Tonga	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.82	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
205	MHL Marshall Islands	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.79	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
206	KIR Kiribati	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%	4.75	5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

P(win) breaks ties at the top by Sonneborn-Berger then game points inside each trial (D13); "P(top on MP, shared)" counts every tied leader (Σ = 1.436). Market bid – ask in cents; mid = (bid + ask) / 2. Click a row to focus that team.

in-round loop: last tick 00:21:10 · round 6: 0/412 boards scored, 0 priced by chess_model, 412 from ratings · board probabilities missing · 65 P(win) updates in round 1, last 16:41:20 · Polymarket: websocket live, 40 legs

json · market json · latest single run

Olympiad Open 2026

Probability of winning — round 1, every update

All teams — every probability · Polymarket as of 09-17 11:00 (start of round 2)